EM CEEMEA CREDIT: EBIUH: mandate USD AT1 PNC6
Emirates NBD Bank (EBIUH; A2 pos/ - / A+)
- Emirates NBD has today mandated banks to arrange investor meetings ahead of potential USD PNC6 bench AT1 issuance as reported by Bloomberg. There is limited information available at this stage, registration link: https://evercall.co/oacc/04173
- Emirates NBD has junior sub USD debt outstanding with the longest workout date (27 Feb, ’27) EBIUH PNC6 charting @ 6.06% or z+187bp. For comparables, we would look at seasoned, junior-subordinated bonds by peer DIBUH, FABUH and CBDUH. Considering first call dates and vintages, the recent Sukuk deal DIBUH PNC6 is charting @ 5.80% yield area or z+163bp (initially priced in Oct ’24 @ 5.25% yield). Recently, higher rated Saudi Arabia’s Al Rajhi Bank issued a Sukuk PNC6 AT1 @ 6.25% yield, currently charting @ 6.25% yield or z+205bp. Lower rated Turkish ISCTR PNC5.5 charts @ 8% yield or z+382bp (Source: Bloomberg).
At the end of January, Emirates NBD Bank posted FY24 results, all in a good read from a credit perspective as previously commented. As a reminder, profitability looked solid with PBT +14.7% YoY @ AED27.1bn, showing strong divisional contributions from both Retail & WM and CIB. NII contributed +7.7% growth YoY, supporting total income @ AED44.1bn, +2.6%. For the full year, loan and deposit growth maintained their positive momentum, with lending up 10% paired with a 14% increase in deposit base (CASA focused). Balance sheet growth continued with total assets up 16% YoY @ AED997bn. Asset quality remained strong, with NPL ratio improving further and continuing trending lower to 3.3% for FY24 (vs 3.9% in 9M24, 4.6% in FY23). Coverage was @156%. Capital ratios are adequate with CET1 @14.67% (vs 14.93% FY23) and CAR @17.08% (vs 17.58% FY23).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OAT: 10-year OAT/Bund Spread Steady As Bayrou Delivers Address
The 10-year OAT/Bund spread is broadly steady as headlines from PM Bayrou’s general policy address cross, currently at ~82.5bps (almost 2bps tighter on the day).
- Bayrou has outlined plans to re-evaluate and renegotiate pension reforms, in line with local media reports earlier today.
- He outlines a proposed 2025 deficit of 5.4%, which is at the upper end (but still within) the 5.0-5.5% range noted by Finance Minister Lombard last week.
- The 3% deficit target by 2029 is maintained, while the 2025 growth forecast has been downgraded two tenths to 0.9%.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26
- RES 1: 5991.72 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- PRICE: 5902.50 @ 14:29 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 5809.00 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The reversal from the Dec 26 high, confirms the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been cleared. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5991.72, the 50-day EMA.
FRANCE: PM Outlines Plans To Re-Evaluate Pension Reforms
In his general policy speech to the National Assembly, Prime Minister Francois Bayrou says the is ".. the need, the requirement, the [instruction] that the country assigns us to find stability...All French people need it. They understand well that we do not agree on everything, but they urge us, I believe, to join forces to force the issues."
- Bayrou "No recovery and rebuilding policy can be implemented if it does not take into account [France's] over-indebtedness situation and if it does not set itself the objective of containing and reducing it", says that it is a 'sword of Damocles' hanging over the country.
- PM: "we must pull ourselves together and adopt the two budgets, the State and Social Security, without delay. We are all paying a high price for this budgetary precariousness: businesses, investors, families, taxpayers, borrowers...[we must]: put in place the conditions for stability, which requires reconciliation"
- Bayrou: "Pension reform is vital for our country and our social model". Says he will "put this issue back on the table with the social partners for a short time and under transparent conditions."
- The PM says that he will bring together a new permanent delegation that includes opposition parties and unions to consider changes to the pension reforms. "If during this "conclave" this delegation finds an agreement on balance and better justice, we will adopt it". Says that if no agreement is reached, the current reforms will remain in place.
- Livestream (in French).
