US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Better put volumes on net overnight, fading the carry-over support in underlying futures ahead of tomorrow's key CPI data. Salient trade is Dec'23 SOFR put condor hedging two 25bp rate hikes by year end. On the flipside, Green Dec'23 call spd looking for rate cuts to price into late 2025 futures.
- SOFR Options:
- 32,700 SFRZ3 93.50/93.75/94.00/94.50 broken put condors ref 94.665 to -.65, checking premium
- 1,000 SFRQ3 94.37/94.43/94.50 put flys ref 94.59
- 3,000 SFRN3 94.37/94.50/94.62 put flys ref 94.585
- 8,000 2QZ3 98.00/98.50 call spds, 2.0 ref 96.44 to -.425
- 2,000 SFRH4 95.37/95.62/95.87/96.12 call condors ref 94.915
- Treasury Options:
- over 6,100 TYQ3 110.5/111.25 put spds vs. TYQ3 112.25 calls ref 111-15
- 3,000 TYQ3 109 puts, 4 ref 111-15
- 2,000 TYU3 108.5/109.5 put spds, 14 ref 111-13.5
- 2,000 TYU3 109.5/110.5 put spds, 20 ref 111-12
- 2,300 TYQ3 112 calls, 23 ref 111-10
- 1,000 TYU3 108.5 puts ref 111-09.5
- 1,000TYQ3 113 calls ref 111-08
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USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Zone Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
- RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3479/85 20-day EMA / High Jun 1
- PRICE: 1.3327 @ 16:29 BST Jun 9
- SUP 1: 1.3313 Low Jun 09
- SUP 2: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
- SUP 4: 1.3214 2.0% 10-dma envelope
USDCAD maintains a softer tone and traded to new multi-month lows Friday. The resumption of weakness exposes 1.3302, the Apr 14 lows and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3479, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Friday Close
- RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6789 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.6755 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 0.6751 High Jun 9
- PRICE: 0.6744 @ 16:27 BST Jun 9
- SUP 1: 0.6623 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6567/6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared. The break higher strengthened on the break of 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May. On the downside, a reversal lower is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. Initial support is seen at 0.6623, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Fading Canada Jobs Move, Tsys Weaker Ahead Next Wks FOMC, ECB, Boj Annc
- Treasury futures holding modestly weaker levels after the bell, near the middle of a decent session range. On what would have been a quiet Friday session ahead next week's FOMC (Wed), ECB (Thu) and BOJ (Fri) policy announcements, futures gapped off weaker levels following a drop in Canada employment data (-17.3k vs. +25k exp).
- Treasuries scaled back from post-Canada employment data induced highs, levels are back near opening levels with front month 10Y futures at 113-13 (-10.5). Curves extend inversion (2s10s -5.543 at -85.851) as short end rates underperformed ahead next week's bill and coupon supply (large 2s/30Y ultra flattener also note: -13,328 TUU3 102-13.75, through 102-14.12 post-time bid vs. +2,364 WNU3 135-12.
- Fed Funds implied rates are drawing to the end of the week with yesterday’s initial claims spike still weighing on pricing for next week’s FOMC but meetings later on in the year having clawed back the drop.
- The further trimming of cuts sees just 24bp from July’s terminal to year-end and 38bp from July to Jan for the smallest since Mar 09 as rate cut expectations began to surge on regional banking woes.
- Cumulative changes from current 5.08% effective: +7bp Jun (+0.5bp on the day), +20bp Jul (+0.5bp), +18.5bp Sep (+1.5bp), +9bp Nov (+2.5bp), -4bp Dec (+3.5bp) and -18bp Jan (+5bp).
