US TSYS: Early SOFR/Eurodollar/Treasury Option Roundup

Nov-02 13:13

Better put trade on net, modest volumes, however, with many sidelined ahead today's FOMC policy annc at 1400ET, Fed chair presser at 1430ET.

  • SOFR Options:
    • 2,000 SFRH3 96.50/96.75 call spds ref 95.005
    • 3,000 SFRF 95.25/95.75 call spds ref 95.00
    • Block, 2,000 SFRZ2 95.37/95.50/95.62/95.75 put condors, 5.0 ref 95.38
  • Eurodollar Options:
    • 8,000 Jun 94.75/95.25 put spds ref 94.735 to -.725
  • Treasury Options:
    • -5,000 TYZ2 109.25/111.75 strangles, 103-101
    • 4,000 TYZ 108/109 2x1 put spds
    • 1,750 TYZ2 106/107.75 put spds
    • over 15,000 TYZ2 108.75/110 put spds vs. 112.5 calls

Historical bullets

STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate

Oct-03 13:09

New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):

* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.08%, no change, volume: $90B

* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.07%, no change, volume: $197B


OBFR volumes fall back with quarter-end.



Source: NY Fed

US TSYS: Rally Continues As TYZ2 Eyes Resistance

Oct-03 13:03
  • Tsy yields attempt to push new session lows with the front-end and belly down -15bps and 10Y -13.5bps, as real yields tumble although remain within Friday's wide range (10Y real 1.56%, +16bp on a week ago).
  • TYZ2 volumes remain below average, whilst a high of 112-27 closes on resistance at 112-30+ (Sep 23 high) after which sits the 20-day EMA of 113-30.
  • It’s a large reversal of Friday’s quarter-end sell-off – 2YY clears Friday’s low – with the broad move potentially exacerbated by European bank concerns (the timing of the main Tsy rally lagged Bunds) on top of earlier underperformance to Gilts following the u-turn on 45% tax rate removal, and still most recently lagging further moves lower in EU yields.

BUNDS: Greek/Bund spread test 280.00bps

Oct-03 12:58
  • Greek/Bund spread is now just over 10bps wider, and testing above 280bps.
  • As noted on the open, main initial resistance is still seen further out, at 290.9bps, the 2022 peak, and widest since 19/03/20.