BUNDS: Early focus on Supply
Oct-20 06:14
- Bund future remains under pressure, on Inflation concerns, and ticked lower after the German PPI beat on the cash open.
- Immediate support is still seen at 135.14, the October low, which held twice last week.
- Further out, will see test towards the 2.45% mark in Yield.
- 10yr Yield printed a 2.42% high last week, which was also the highest print since August 2011.
- Resistance moves down to the 135.82/135.93 area.
- There's no tier 1 data left for the session and early focus will be on European supply.
- SUPPLY: Spain 3, 4 and 7yr, France 2, 4, 5yr plus Linkers.
- For the US, $21bn 5yr TIPS.
- SPEAKERS: BoE Broadbent, ECB de Cos, Fed Harker, Jefferson, Cook, Bowman.
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GERMAN DATA: German PPI highest since records began - driven by energy
Sep-20 06:12
- That is the highest Y/Y and M/M print since the series began in 1949 with energy prices the driver - with a high weighting of energy prices in the index.
- Energy prices were up +139%Y/Y / 20.4%M/M with energy prices for energy suppliers up 278% Y/Y.
- This saw input goods, capital goods, consumer goods sub-indexes also rise (in part as a result).
- Recall that energy prices were at a peak at the end of August - and have since fallen back a lot. So this may not be a sustained rise (unless energy prices spike higher again).
- Bund futures down 25 ticks on the release to a low of 142.23 on the day.
USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
Sep-20 06:04
- RES 4: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3462 1.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3421 High Sep 30 2020
- RES 1: 1.3344/3409 High Sep 19 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- PRICE: 1.3257 @ 07:01 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 1.3107/2954 20-day EMA / Low Sep 13
- SUP 3: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
- SUP 4: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
USDCAD traded higher Monday, resuming the rally that started Sep 13. The pullback from yesterday’s high is considered corrective. The recent break of 1.3224, Jul 14 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend. Attention is on 1.3409 next, the upper band of a moving average envelope. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment. Key trend support is at 1.2954.
MNI: GERMANY AUG PPI +7.9% M/M (FCST +2.4%); JUL +5.3% M/M
Sep-20 06:01
- MNI: GERMANY AUG PPI +7.9% M/M (FCST +2.4%); JUL +5.3% M/M
- GERMANY AUG PPI +45.8% Y/Y (FCST +36.8%); JUL +37.2% Y/Y
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