NORGES BANK: Early Consensus In Favour Of A Cut Next Week; We Aren't So Sure
Based on the analyst previews we have seen so far, consensus still leans in favour of a 25bp Norges ...
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EQUITY OPTIONS: Long Dated Estoxx Put Spread
SX5E (18/12/26) 5050/4650ps, sold at 221.4 and 221.2 in ~14.55k.
MNI: CHINA JAN-JULY NEW LOANS CNY12.87 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY13.27 TRLN
- CHINA JAN-JULY NEW LOANS CNY12.87 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY13.27 TRLN
- CHINA END-JULY M2 +8.8% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.3%; END-JUNE +8.3% Y/Y
- CHINA END-JULY M1 +5.6% Y/Y VS +4.6% Y/Y END-JUNE
- CHINA END-JULY M0 +11.8% Y/Y VS +12.0% Y/Y END-JUNE
- CHINA JAN-JULY TSF CNY23.99 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY24.28 TRLN
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Remain Weak After Break of Bear Trigger
WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. Gold traded lower at the start of the week, but last week's strength returned prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal is within close proximity to support at $3334.75, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.
- WTI Crude down $0.61 or -0.97% at $62.56
- Natural Gas down $0 or -0.04% at $2.807
- Gold spot up $12.28 or +0.37% at $3360.53
- Copper down $0.3 or -0.07% at $458.25
- Silver up $0.58 or +1.53% at $38.507
- Platinum up $5.85 or +0.44% at $1349.45
