SECURITY: E3 Edges Closer to Triggering Snapback Sanctions On Iran

MNI speaks to ECB sources -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

The implied probability of President Donald Trump increasing sanctions on Russia by September 15 spiked from 23% to 50%, following hawkish comments from Trump ahead of a meeting with UK PM Keir Starmer. 

• Trump said: “I’m disappointed in [Russian] President Putin... So we’re going to have to look and I’m going to reduce that 50 days that I gave him to a lesser number,” referrring to an ultimatum issued to Putin earlier this month to work credibly toward a ceasefire or new sanctions will be imposed. Trump added he "already knows the answer", signalling scepticism Russia will come to the negotiating table.
• Should Trump greenlight the package, a punitive Russia sanctions package which has been modified to ensure Trump has final say, is expected to pass US Congress without issue. Without Trump's endorsement, there is little chance lawmakers will work independently to pass the package.
• Former Australian general Mick Ryan notes in useful article that Putin is unlikely to alter his Ukraine strategy without a major shift in US policy. Ryan notes that Putin's strategy has two key elements: Wait out Ukraine’s key supporters and "slowly strangle Ukraine by attriting its military, degrade its economy and destroy civilian morale."
• New US sanctions may depend on the outcome of today's US-China trade talks, expected to touch on China's purchase of Russian hydrocarbons, as the Senate package leverages secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian O&G to choke Russia's economy. 

Figure 1: Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15? (24-hour chart)

Source: Polymarket

• The Nokkie has now taken over the USD as the best performing Currency against the EUR within G10 FX.
• WTI is fully reversing Friday's losses, and a test up to $66.74 would match Friday's printed high.
• Commodity Traders will likely suggest that the Trade deal has put some impetus, and the higher Oil is underpinning the NOK.
• Next support in EURNOK is still some ~6.4 big figures away, down to 11.7800, the July low.