EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trend Signals Remain Bullish
Oct-16 13:38
- RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6766.75/6812.25 High Oct 15 / High Sep 9 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 6734.75 @ 14:27 BST Oct 16
- SUP 1: 6609.91 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
- SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2
A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Oct 10 appears corrective - for now. Price has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6609.91, and the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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US DATA: Downward Revisions Take Gloss Off IP Beat
Sep-16 13:36
Industrial production and capacity utilization data pointed to a continuation of a tepid trend in August, with activity moderating since a push higher at the turn of the year.
- Industrial production was stronger than expected in August at 0.1% M/M (cons -0.1) but with a net downward revision of -0.16pps offsetting most of this positive surprise. The revision was concentrated in July with -0.4% M/M vs the originally reported -0.1%.
- Manufacturing production was on balance stronger than expected however, with a clear beat in August at 0.2% M/M (cons -0.2) after a net downward revision of -0.15pps also mainly in July.
- Utilities continue to play a volatile role, slipping -2.0% M/M in Aug for the heaviest decline since March after a net upward revision of 0.28pps.
- In trend terms, IP growth eased back four tenths to 0.9% Y/Y although sees slightly stronger recent momentum with 1.5% annualized on a 3m/3m basis. Manufacturing production also eased four tenths to 0.9% Y/Y with the same 0.9% annualized run rate.
- Capacity utilization meanwhile is pointing to a clearer recent moderation, at 77.4% for a second month running after a downward revision to its lowest since January. It peaked this year at 77.9% in Feb and was still at 77.8% in June.
USD: Unwinds US Retail Sales gains
Sep-16 13:31
- The Dollar unwinds all of the post retail sales gains, and similar reversals in US Treasury futures, moving off their lows
- The Immediate focus is right back in the EURUSD and the resistance right here at 1.1829.
- We have also highlighted the EURJPY earlier today and the 2025 high situated at 173.97.
- The SEK, CHF, GBP, AUD, NZD are now all testing fresh high versus the USD.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
Sep-16 13:25
SPX: 6,636.0 (+0.3%); DJIA: 45,904 (+0.0%/+20pts); NDX: 24,395.0 (+0.4%).
