EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Pullback Appears Corrective For Now
- RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6766.75/6812.25 High Oct 15 / High Sep 9 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 6658.25 @ 14:32 BST Oct 17
- SUP 1: 6612.26 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
- SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2
Short-term weakness in S&P E-Minis appears corrective - for now. Price has again pierced support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 6612.26. The Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. Clearance of this level would undermine a bull theme. Note that moving average studies continue to remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Large 5Y Midcurve Call Spread Buyer
- +30,000 Wednesday weekly FV 110/110.25 call spds, 3.5 vs. 109-27.25/0.22%
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
- US Cash Opening Calls: $SPX: 6,618.0 (+0.2%); $DJIA: 45,871 (+0.2%/+113pts); $NDX: 24,305.0.
NVIDIA is down 1.34% pre Open, and some focus on the Stock following earlier China headlines.
BOC: 25bp Cut Fully Priced, MNI Instant Answers Look For Future Rate Signals
OIS meeting-dated pricing sees around 98% implied probability of a 25bp cut by the BOC at today's announcement (0945ET). Beyond that there's a second cut fully priced by the January meeting. See table below.
- We'll provide our Instant Answers and a comparison of the rate announcement statement vs July's. Recall that the press conference will start at 1030ET.
BOC Links (will go live at 0945ET):
MNI's Instant Answers for the BOC decision focus on any signals on future rate moves sent from the 0945ET release. They are:
- Target for overnight rate:
- Does the Bank say the case for further rate reductions is strong?
- Does the Bank reiterate it could LOWER rates if the economy weakens and inflation is contained?
- Does the Bank mention core inflation has been elevated?
- Does the Bank say growth or job market prospects have weakened?
- Does the Bank say it may be less forward looking with policy?
| Meeting | Current | After July BOC (Jul 31) | Change since then | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) |
| Sep 17 2025 | 2.57 | 2.70 | -13.8 | -24.4 | -24.4 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2.42 | 2.65 | -22.7 | -38.6 | -14.2 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 2.34 | 2.60 | -25.6 | -46.6 | -8.0 |
| Jan 28 2026 | 2.31 | -50.4 | -3.8 | ||
| Mar 18 2026 | 2.26 | -55.2 | -4.8 |
