EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 6900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6890.00 1.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6837.25 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6826.00 @ 14:36 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 6721.65 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6637.80 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract has traded higher today, breaching resistance at 6812.25, the Sep 9 high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6850.87, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6721.62, the 20-day EMA. The 50–day EMA is at 6637.80.
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SONIA OPTIONS: Large Put Fly Buyer
SFIG6 96.20/96.10/96.00p fly, bought for 2 and 2.25 in 25k.
GILTS: Gap Support In Futures Holds, BoE Governor Points To Further Cuts Again
Gilts find supports after bears manage to close the opening gap higher
- A bid in crude oil (albeit with that move linked to geopolitical risk), coupled with headlines promoting EGB spread widening and a sizeable US$IG deal, have provided the major headwinds for bonds over the past couple of hours.
- Recent comments from BoE Governor, as he continued to lean into the idea of further rate cuts, may have provided some modest background support.
- Futures last 91.03 vs. session lows of 90.96.
- Bulls now look to the September 11 high (91.82), while initial support of note is seen at the Sep 2/22 lows (90.65/60).
- Yields little changed to 1bp higher, curve marginally steeper.
- SONIA futures flat to +1.5, off highs given the move in bonds.
- BoE-dated OIS still pricing ~6bp of cuts through year-end and the next cut is fully discounted come the end of the April meeting.
UN: Presidents Of Ukraine, Iran & Argentina Among 2nd Day Speakers
The second day of the UN General Assembly general debate is underway (livestream here), with King Felipe VI of Spain delivering the opening address. Speakers on the second day include (with rough timings), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (09:30ET/14:30BST), Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (10:00ET/15:00BST), Argentinan President Javier Milei (12:00ET/17:00BST), Finnish President Alexander Stubb (13:15ET/18:15BST), and Slovak President Peter Pellegrini (17:00ET/22:00BST).
- Zelenskyy's speech comes in the aftermath of US President Donald Trump's high-profile Truth Social post seemingly backing Ukraine's efforts to repel Russia's invasion to a greater extent than previously (albeit with implications Ukraine and Europe may have to go it alone, see 'UKRAINE: Trump Post Strikes Positive Tone, But Could Put NATO & Kyiv On Notice', 10:14BST).
- Pezeshkian will speak following a meeting of the E3 (France, Germany, UK), EU, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on 23 Sep in a last-minute effort to avoid snapback sanctions coming in on 27 Sep.
- Financial markets will be watching Milei's address with the US talking up its commitments to supporting the Argentine economy, which faces significant headwinds amid concerns that the opposition left-wing Peronists will retain control of Congress in the October legislative elections, stymying the Milei administration's reform efforts.
