EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6771.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6765.75 @ 07:55 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 6666.25 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6611.00 Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: 6550.28 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract has again traded to a fresh cycle high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6666.25. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6550.28.
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STIR: Just 9bps of BOE Cuts Priced Through Year-end
BOE-dated OIS continue to price just ~4bps of easing through November, with 9bps of cuts priced through year-end. We think the November meeting is much more “live” than current market pricing implies, with focus on next week’s labour market and inflation data double header.
- Today’s domestic calendar is light. However, tomorrow will see Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor & Greene appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee (alongside separate comments from Deputy Governor Breeden at a money and payments conference).
- SONIA futures are flat to -2.5 ticks through the blues, with the strip bear steepening alongside the Gilt curve (more on Gilts to follow shortly).
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 3.974 | 0.7 |
| Nov-25 | 3.928 | -3.9 |
| Dec-25 | 3.879 | -8.7 |
| Feb-26 | 3.785 | -18.1 |
| Apr-26 | 3.751 | -21.6 |
| Jun-26 | 3.686 | -28.1 |
| Jul-26 | 3.664 | -30.2 |
| Sep-26 | 3.629 | -33.7 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P |
SILVER TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $40.323 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $42.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 1: $40.850 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $40.688 @ 07:58 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: $38.585 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $37.661 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
- SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal traded sharply higher Monday. Resistance at $35.930, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $41.064 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is $38.585, the 20-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 90.03/90.19 range.
