EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bullish Recovery

• Norwegian retail sales momentum is softening, but remains positive. Norges Bank will likely retain its cautious guidance at next week’s decision (alongside holding the deposit rate at 4.00%),  but risks over the next 12 months appear tilted in favour of more easing than implied by the September MPR rate path.
• SA retail sales (ex autos) fell 0.5% M/M in September, weaker than the three analyst estimates ranging between -0.3% and 0.1%. August’s reading was also revised down a tenth to 0.1%.  3M/3M momentum nonetheless remains positive at 0.7% (vs 0.8% prior).
• Sales excluding autos and fuel fell 0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% prior), with 3M/3M momentum easing to 0.7%  (vs 1.0% prior) and a YTD high of 1.7%.
• We were expecting to receive monthly data on household goods consumption this morning (which would have provided signals for next month’s Q3 GDP report), but Statistics Norway has said that the  data has been “postponed indefinitely”

• RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 6953.25 2.000 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 6944.75 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 6941.25 @ 07:25 GMT Oct 29
• SUP 1: 6812.25/6765.36 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6666.16 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and price has traded higher this week. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 6900.00 handle has been cleared, opening 6953.25 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6748.48, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 181.07 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.23 High Oct 27 / Record High  
• PRICE: 176.87 @ 07:30 GMT Oct 29
• SUP 1: 176.13 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.53 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart 

The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Resistance and the bull trigger at 177.94, the Oct 10 high has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. 178.94, a Fibonacci projection, is the next key upside level. First support to watch lies at 176.13, the 20-day EMA. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 174.53.