EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 6500.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 2: 6439.88 1.500 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6407.25 High Jul 23
- PRICE: 6399.00 @ 14:31 BST Jul 24
- SUP 1: 6318.75 Low Jul 22
- SUP 2: 6277.23/6131.47 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 6075.25 Low Jun 24
- SUP 4: 5959.00 Low Jun 23
S&P E-Minis have once again traded to a fresh cycle high this week. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. With the 6400.00 handle cleared, sights are on 6439.88, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6131.47. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6277.23.
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BONDS: No Feedthrough From Latest Round Of Oil Weakness
No feedthrough into core global FI markets as crude oil moves lower after U.S. President Trump noted that China can now purchase Iranian oil.
- Global crude oil benchmarks lost over $1 on the comments, although session lows in Brent & WTI went untested.
- The headlines point to a freeing up of Iranian barrels/looser sanctions. This is a sharp turn from expectations of Iranian oil supply tightening over the last few weeks as the conflict with Iran flared.
- Our commodities team notes that further details are unclear at the moment, although highlight that U.S. sanctions on Iran have made it harder for Chinese buyers to get oil to their refineries. This has forced them to resort to more complicated measures to evade sanctions.
BOE: Ramsden: Speech focuses on labour market and downside risks (as expected)
Ramsden: "Given the relative stability in the baseline forecast what is it about the outlook that has influenced my thinking? The short answer is the cumulative evidence of a continued material loosening in the labour market. As a result while I still think the risks to inflation continue to be two-sided I’m now attaching more weight to the downside risks in the medium term."
- Speech goes into more details on the labour market - as expected given his dovish dissent last week.
- Full text available here.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
- SPX: 6,078.3 (+0.9%).
- DJIA: 42,954 (+0.9%/+373pts).
- NDX: 22,104.2 (+1.1%).
