EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6500.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 2: 6439.88 1.500 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6421.25 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6407.25 @ 14:59 BST Jul 25
- SUP 1: 6289.07 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6142.04 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6075.25 Low Jun 24
- SUP 4: 5959.00 Low Jun 23
S&P E-Minis have traded to fresh cycle highs this week. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. With the 6400.00 handle cleared, sights are on 6439.88, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6142.04. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6289.07
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NATO: Trump Speaks On Defence Spending & Middle East After NATO Summit
US President Donald Trump delivering his presser at the end of the NATO summit in The Hague. Livestream here. Calls the meeting a "highly successful summit", "highly productive", touts "major progress" and says "tremendous things have been accomplished" at the summit.
- Says that the major focus of the meeting was getting spending of allies up to 5% of GDP spending on defence and for those countries to share responsibility for Europe's defence, says it will be known as the 'Hague Defence Commitment'. Says that additional money should be spent on "very serious military hardware, not bureaucracy".
- On Iran, Trump says 'Iran won't get access to nuclear material'.
- Trump's presser comes after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which is believed to have lasted around 40-50 minutes.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish.
- This week’s fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7.
- Sights are on 6200.00 and 6281.12, the 1.50 and 1.618 projections of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing.
- Key support remains at the 50-day EMA.
- A clear break of it would signal a reversal.
BUNDS: OI Points To Net Short Setting Across Curve After DFA Funding Plan
OI data points to net short setting across the German futures curve on Tuesday, as market participants reacted to the DFA’s Q3 funding plan and accompanying commentary.
- Tuesday’s OI % increases for the major German FI futures contracts are outlined below, with Bund OI rising by a net ~45K lots:
- Schatz OI: +0.2%
- Bobl OI: +0.9%
- Bund OI: +3.8%
- Buxl OI: +3.2%
- A reminder that our most recent Europe Positioning Indicator (Pi), released Monday, noted that positioning in German contracts was leaning "long" in April but there's been a decisive shift toward "short" in the time since. Most notably in Schatz, positioning has gone from "very long" in late May to one of two shorts in Europe Pi. The other short is in Bunds, which was "flat" previously.
- Tuesday OI data points to an extension of that trend.
- Bobl and Buxl positioning remained flat in our Pi update.
