EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Trading at Fresh Cycle High
The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices has held, with the Eurostoxx 50 future still above the 50-day EMA. Additional strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, recent impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. E-mini S&P prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6371.43 and is at a fresh cycle high. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6249.46, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 556.5 pts or +1.3% at 43274.67 and the TOPIX ended 25.54 pts higher or +0.83% at 3091.91.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 17.547 pts or +0.48% at 3683.465 and the HANG SENG ended 643.99 pts higher or +2.58% at 25613.67.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 186.73 pts or +0.78% at 24210.64, FTSE 100 higher by 14.64 pts or +0.16% at 9162.17, CAC 40 up 31.86 pts or +0.41% at 7785.39 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 42.05 pts or +0.79% at 5378.2.
- Dow Jones mini up 86 pts or +0.19% at 44644, S&P 500 mini up 11 pts or +0.17% at 6479.5, NASDAQ mini up 60.25 pts or +0.25% at 23998.
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COMMODITIES: Crude Sees Support Ahead of Trump's 'Major Statement' on Russia
The bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.39. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- WTI Crude up $0.67 or +0.98% at $69.11
- Natural Gas up $0.15 or +4.56% at $3.464
- Gold spot up $10.96 or +0.33% at $3366.52
- Copper down $6.35 or -1.13% at $554.75
- Silver up $0.57 or +1.49% at $38.9868
- Platinum up $4.1 or +0.29% at $1397.08
EQUITIES: Stocks Hold Bullish Poise Into Earnings Season
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week as the contract extended the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 110.06 pts or -0.28% at 39459.62 and the TOPIX ended 0.43 pts lower or -0.02% at 2822.81.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 9.473 pts or +0.27% at 3519.65 and the HANG SENG ended 63.75 pts higher or +0.26% at 24203.32.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 182.55 pts or -0.75% at 24071.87, FTSE 100 higher by 29.05 pts or +0.32% at 8969.34, CAC 40 down 42.86 pts or -0.55% at 7786.04 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 36.81 pts or -0.68% at 5346.2.
- Dow Jones mini down 178 pts or -0.4% at 44422, S&P 500 mini down 21.25 pts or -0.34% at 6267.75, NASDAQ mini down 73.25 pts or -0.32% at 22887.25.
OPTIONS: Sizeable Strikes in EUR/USD Could Contain Intraday Strength
Larger FX options rolling off at the cut today include some sizeable strikes in EUR/USD that could contain any intraday strength, while EUR/GBP and AUD/USD also see smaller, but very close-to-market interest:
- EUR/USD: $1.1600-05(E1.5bln), $1.1615-25(E1.6bln), $1.1650(E1.2bln), $1.1700(E853mln), $1.1725-40(E2.3bln) $1.1800($1.5bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3590-05(Gbp565mln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8650(E581mln), Gbp0.8695-00(E882mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6560(A$631mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3660-75($527mln)
