EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Remains in a Bullish Price Sequence
The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00. The trend set-up in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Recent cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6173.21. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6322.32.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 19.85 pts or -0.05% at 40654.7 and the TOPIX ended 11.54 pts higher or +0.4% at 2920.18.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 6.006 pts or +0.17% at 3615.717 and the HANG SENG ended 347.52 pts lower or -1.36% at 25176.93.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 1.54 pts or -0.01% at 24215.53, FTSE 100 lower by 20.18 pts or -0.22% at 9116.13, CAC 40 up 25.11 pts or +0.32% at 7882.47 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.66 pts or +0.05% at 5381.86.
- Dow Jones mini down 6 pts or -0.01% at 44810, S&P 500 mini up 4.5 pts or +0.07% at 6410.5, NASDAQ mini up 34.25 pts or +0.15% at 23486.25.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EUROPEAN FISCAL: Italy Runs Primary Surplus In Q1, But Interest Expenses Rising
On a 4Q rolling sum basis, the Italian budget deficit ticked up a tenth to 3.5% of nominal GDP in Q1 – far less dramatic than the 8.5% single-quarter figure reported by newswires. Interest expenditures (also on a 4Q rolling basis) ticked up to 4.0% GDP (vs 3.9% prior), meaning the government still ran a primary surplus of 0.4% for the second consecutive quarter.
- In its May forecast round, the EC projected the Italian deficit at 3.3% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. This was similar to the Government’s medium-term fiscal plan projections presented last year (3.3% in 2025, 2.8% in 2026). Bloomberg consensus on the other hand is slightly less optimistic on 2026 fiscal consolidation, with the median analyst projecting the budget deficit at 3.4% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
- Expenditures rose to 50.8% of GDP in Q1 (4Q rolling, vs 50.6% prior), with revenues ticking up to 47.3% (vs 47.1% prior).
- The debt/GDP ratio (4Q average) rose to 136.5% (vs 135.8% in Q4). The EC expects debt/GDP at 136.7% in 2025 and 138.2% in 2026 (Italian Government: 136.9% in 2025 and 137.8% in 2026). Medium-term fallout from the post-covid Superbonus scheme continues to push debt/GDP higher in the coming years, but the Government expects the ratio to begin falling from 2028.
- While Italian fiscal consolidation still appears intact, one less positive development in Q1 was the interest – nominal growth differential (“r-g”) turning positive (0.5pp minus 0.0pp in Q4). This means that interest expenses are growing faster than the economy. If the Government stops running primary surpluses with this dynamic in place, it would put total debt on an unstable and increasing path once again.
FED: Bostic Sees Firms' Tariff Uncertainty lnto 2026, MNI Livestream Later Today
Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe: “I’m hearing more [businesses] say that they may not expect this whole thing [response to tariffs and other economic factors] to play out, to where they’re at their final strategy, till even 2026, so this could be a much more extended period than I think many expect,”
Bostic spoke to Reuters last week, reiterating his view for just one 25bp cut late this year.
A reminder that MNI has a livestream with Bostic later today at 1000ET/1500BST. You can register for an in-depth discussion on the economic outlook here: https://mni.marketnews.com/RaphaelBostic
ECB: Dovish Commentary from ECB VP De Guindos On Growth, Inflation
- "*ECB'S GUINDOS: FACING `BRUTAL UNCERTAINTY'" Bloomberg
- "*ECB'S GUINDOS: 2Q, 3Q GROWTH WILL BE ALMOST FLAT" Bloomberg
- "*ECB'S GUINDOS: CONSUMPTION AS A DRIVER HASN'T HAPPENED" Bloomberg
- "*ECB'S GUINDOS: CONSUMPTION BEING HELD BACK BY UNCERTAINTY" Bloomberg
- "*ECB'S GUINDOS: SEEN REMARKABLE SERVICES INFLATION DECELERATION" Bloomberg
- "*ECB'S GUINDOS: CURRENT INTEREST RATE POSITION IS CORRECT" Bloomberg
In its June projections, the ECB projected real GDP at 0.2% Q/Q in Q2 and -0.1% Q/Q in Q3.
