EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Moving Average Studies Remain in Bear Mode Set Up

Mar-27 08:54

The medium-term trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and recent short-term weakness - for now - appears corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5295.60. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a retracement towards 5160.00, the Feb 4 low. The bull trigger is 5516.00, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. S&P E-Minis traded lower yesterday but for now, the contract remains closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Note that the 20-day EMA has been breached. A continuation  higher near-term - towards 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.

  • Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 227.32 pts or -0.6% at 37799.97 and the TOPIX ended 2.58 pts higher or +0.09% at 2815.47.
  • Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 5.052 pts or +0.15% at 3373.749 and the HANG SENG ended 95.48 pts higher or +0.41% at 23578.8.
  • Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 238.27 pts or -1.04% at 22554.91, FTSE 100 lower by 48.46 pts or -0.56% at 8629.33, CAC 40 down 56 pts or -0.7% at 7960.09 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 43.3 pts or -0.8% at 5359.94.
  • Dow Jones mini up 60 pts or +0.14% at 42792, S&P 500 mini down 0.75 pts or -0.01% at 5756.5, NASDAQ mini down 29 pts or -0.14% at 20078.5.

Historical bullets

ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: BTP Short Term and BTPei Auction

Feb-25 08:49

Italy will sell E2.50-2.75bln of the 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794) and E1.25-1.50bln of the 1.80% May-36 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005588881) at today’s auction.

  • This will be the first re-opening of the 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term, which was launched on January 28. The launch saw a 1.63x bid-to-cover ratio for the E3bln issued.
  • The spread of this BTP Short Term to the 2.20% Mar-27 Schatz has fluctuated in a relatively narrow range between 32-35bps since January.
  • The 1.80% May-36 BTPei has been re-opened three times since its syndicated launch last March. The January re-opening attracted a 1.72x bid-to-cover ratio for the E1.25bln issued, with the average price of 99.060 exceeding the 98.966 pre-auction mid-price.
  • Comparing against the 1.45% Mar-36 BTP, this BTPei has a breakeven rate of 171.4bps (vs a YTD closing low of 168.1bps on Jan 1)
  • Timing: Results will be available shortly after the bidding window closes at 10:00GMT / 11:00CET.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread buyer

Feb-25 08:48

ERZ5 98.50/98.75cs, bought for 3.25 in 20k.

BONDS: US and UK Roll update

Feb-25 08:43

ROLLS continue to dominate, June is not quite yet front Month for Gilt or Treasuries, but will likely be into Tomorrow.

  • Ultra 30: 56%.
  • TBond: 52%.
  • Ultra 10: 52%.
  • TYA: 57%.
  • FVA: 51%.
  • TUA: 57%.
  • Gilt: 40% (as of Yesterday).