EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
- RES 4: 5970.87 61.8% retracement of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 5924.59 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 1: 5837.25 High Mar 25
- PRICE: 5723.75 @ 13:42 GMT Mar 27
- SUP 1: 5650.75/5559.75 Low Mar 18 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
S&P E-Minis traded lower yesterday but for now, price remains closer to recent highs. The trend is bearish and gains since Mar 13 are considered corrective. Note that the 20-day EMA has been breached. A continuation higher near-term would open 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.
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US DATA: Philly Fed Services Outlook Deteriorates, With Disinflationary Signals
February's Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing survey showed a deterioration in current regional activity to a 6-month low -13.1 from -9.1 prior (no consensus). As with other February private sector and consumer surveys, including the manufacturing counterpart to the Philly Fed services survey, there has been a clear deterioration in both confidence and activity since the turn of the year (as policy uncertainty has picked up) - though unlike those surveys, price pressures in this one aren't nearly as acute.
- The other sub-categories of the survey were mixed: optimism dimmed sharply, with 6-month regional activity expectations dropping to a 26-month low -1.1 from 26.2 prior. Firm-level responses showed sharp drops too but the fall in the 6-month firm outlook wasn't as pronounced.
- New orders fell to -1.3 from positive 1.6, though employment indicators picked up for both full-time and part-time positions.
- Some "good" news is that price pressures aren't building: prices received collapsed fell to -1.1 from -0.3, marking the first two negative readings since August 2020, in a complete reversal from December's 22-month high. Prices paid dipped only slightly (23.4 from 28.9), though this was enough for a 50-month low.
- This is a volatile survey month-to-month but points to generally softening outlook services on both the activity and inflation fronts.
FOREX: EURUSD Approaching Key S-T Resistance
- EURUSD edges back above 1.0500 in recent trade, extending the intra-day recovery to around 50 pips. Treasury outperformance continues to weigh on the greenback and as noted earlier, month-end dynamics may be translating to the USD not benefiting from any safe haven demand.
- Indeed, Deutsche Bank’s nod to the significant shift in the German narrative could be filtering through to the broader market assessing the balance of risks as more evenly distributed from a short-term perspective.
- Given a technical bull cycle remains intact, these dynamics may leave the EURUSD topside vulnerable. Indeed, spot is narrowing the gap to the Monday highs of 1.0528, and more importantly 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and a reversal trigger.
- Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards 1.0630, the Dec 6 high.
EGB SYNDICATION: Record book size for a non-10 year Spanish syndication
The E93bln book for the Spain syndication is the record for a Spanish non-10-year transaction (surpassing the E83bln for the 30-year last year).
