EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Trend Theme Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 7089.25 1.000 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing
- RES 3: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 7036.74 0.764 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing
- RES 1: 7036.25 High Jan 13
- PRICE: 7003.25 @ 14:38 GMT Jan 16
- SUP 1: 6952.17/6898.30 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support
- SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24
- SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger
The trend structure in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 7036.74, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at the 20-day EMA (pierced) - currently at 6952.17. The 50-day EMA lies at 6898.30.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Pierces Support
- RES 4: 7100.00 Round number support
- RES 3: 7048.21 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 6932.25/6988.00 High Dec 15 / 12
- PRICE: 6857.00 @ 14:36 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: 6831.93/6817.50 50-day EMA / Low Dec 16
- SUP 2: 6785.50 50.0% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
- SUP 3: 6737.71 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
- SUP 4: 6684.50 Low Nov 24
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback - for now - is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 6831.93, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the key support and reversal trigger lies at 6583.00, the Nov 21 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.
SNB: Q4 Quarterly Bulletin Consistent With Policy Rate Remaining At 0%
The SNB has published their Q4 quarterly bulletin, including business cycle signals publication here. On balance, the publication is consistent with an SNB policy rate at 0% for the foreseeable future. Key excerpts below:
- "According to the talks with company representatives, growth momentum in the Swiss economy has increased slightly in the fourth quarter. The services sector and construction continue to record solid growth in turnover, and parts of manufacturing also report a certain upturn in what has until now been weak momentum."
- "Wage growth has weakened slightly. The companies visited expect average wage growth of 1.3% in 2026, down from 1.6% this year. "
- "For the next two quarters, companies expect purchase and sales prices to rise slightly. [...] On the sales side, companies are trying to pass on the pay rises and increases in some purchase prices to their customers. However, the scope for price adjustments, which are often made at the beginning of the year, is in many cases limited by the tight competitive situation."
BOE: MNI BOE Preview - December 2025: What follows a Christmas cut?
For the full MNI BOE Preview click here
- Governor Bailey is almost unanimously expected to join the four dovish dissenters and deliver a Christmas BOE 25bp rate cut at tomorrow's meeting (expected unanimously by the sell side and priced over 23bp at the time of writing).
- The market will be looking for more nuance at this meeting so we look at our top 7 things to watch in the meeting (assuming we do get the expected cut; if we don’t then the market isn’t going to pay much attention to the details!).
- We also summarise over 20 sellside previews - a 5-4 vote split is expected by the majority but analysts are split over what happens after December.
