EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Bullish Theme

The upward trend in general public credit growth that began in January has stalled, given Norges Bank’s more hawkish than expected outlook through the course of this year. Combined with a fading impulse from the offshore sector, constrained business credit growth may weigh on Norwegian activity in 2026, potentially necessitating more cuts than signalled in the September MPR. The Q3 GDP report is due on Wednesday, with mainland GDP consensus at 0.2% Q/Q, two tenths below Norges Bank's projection. 

• Norwegian credit growth was 3.9% Y/Y in October for the second consecutive month.
• Non-financial corporation credit growth remained at 1.7% Y/Y (an eight-month low), while household credit growth was unchanged at 4.4% Y/Y.
• Municipal government borrowing is ~10% of total public credit. It’s also the most volatile, printing at 7.4% Y/Y in October (vs 6.9% in September, 8.3% in August). 

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $58.05 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 24 
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The move down last week in WTI futures strengthens a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.

• The weekend papers covered plans by Reeves to extend the Electric Car Grant scheme which originally had funds of GBP650mln and is said to be extended. The details here are a bit fuzzy - we have seen increases of between GBP1.3bln and GBP1.5bln reported. This is likely to come in alongside the pay per mile scheme to replace VED revenues (vehicle excise duty i.e. car tax).
• On Friday the FT ran a story noting that the GBP2,000 limit to salary sacrifice exemptions from employer and employee NICs would raise between GBP3-4bln. There are no other new details in the story but this is higher than the GBP2bln estimate previously published in The Times when the detailed proposals first broke a couple of weeks ago. Full article here.
• The Telegraph ran with a headline "Reeves's welfare giveaway to top £15bn". There's nothing new in there however, it is just summing up the cost of ending the two child benefit cap, the two welfare reforms since the Spring budget (winter fuel means testing and the watered down welfare reforms) and the inflationary increase in benefits.