EUROPEAN INFLATION: Dutch HICP Sees 1.6pp Services Y/Y Jump; Firmer Than Exp

Dutch flash HICP inflation rose to 4.14% in April, up from 3.39% in March and notably firmer than the 3.4% expected. This equates to a 1.79% M/M sequential advance (1.1% cons). The headline increase was services-driven: The category jumped to 5.98% Y/Y, the highest since August 2024 and a 1.6pp jump from March, bringing up core HICP to 4.23% from 3.27% in March (highest since Oct-23).

• There are no further details on services in the flash data - so we will have to await the final release to assess how much this was driven by one-offs (Easter Effects were likely at play at least to some degree) but the jump here remains notable.
• Non-energy industrial goods meanwhile remained little changed, printing 1.52% Y/Y (vs 1.46% prior).
• Inflation in food, alcohol and tobacco continues to be elevated in the Netherlands, at 7.16% Y/Y in April (vs 7.06% prior).
• Energy inflation accelerated to -3.21% Y/Y (-3.28% prior), sequentially, prices fell (-0.27% M/M) but likely less so than what is being expected sequentially for the Eurozone as a whole in April.
• The national CPI meanwhile also came in higher than expected, at 4.1%Y/Y (vs 3.5% cons, 3.7% prior).
• For reference, Netherlands represents around 6% of the overall 2025 Eurozone HICP basket.