BELGIUM: Drones Shut Down Airports As Frozen Russian Asset Meeting w/EU Looms

Gold has registered another fresh all-time high at $3,949.6/oz today.

• Fresh extension higher would target projection resistance (3,987.3/oz), which protects more meaningful resistance at $3,987.3/oz.
• Our technical analyst stresses that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and price continues to appreciate despite the fact that RSI has been in overbought territory since early September. Furthermore, the metal shows little sign of weakness during any pullbacks in spot, underscoring the bullish narrative.
• Geopolitical worry, Fed independence risk, expectations for further Fed easing, ETF & official account demand and broader concerns re: the potential for further USD weakness continue to present the central pillars of the bullish narrative.
• Overall, the sell-side remains bullish when it comes to the yellow metal, with any warnings centred around the scale and speed of the rally that we have witnessed, as opposed to outright bearish arguments.
• UBS note that “although prices might ease back in the near term after such strong performance, we now expect gold to rise to $4,200/oz over the coming months”.
• Meanwhile, HSBC think that spot “looks primed to clear well above $4,000/oz before the end of the year”. They caution that “high prices are encouraging greater supply and reduced physical demand. These supply/demand changes have yet to deter the rally. Still, reduced physical demand and more supply leave greater amounts of bullion to be absorbed by investors. A slowing in the investor rally possibly later in 2026 could result in excess physical bullion eventually weighing on prices. Bar demand, however, is forecast to rise on institutional interest”.

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French Minister for Public Accounts Amélie de Montchalin warned in an interview with Le Monde last month that the government must submit a draft budget to parliament by October 13 or enact a special law to avoid a shutdown, as it will no longer be possible to pass a budget by January 1.

• De Montchalin said a special law was used earlier this year, “There was no catastrophe because it only lasted six weeks.” However, she added, “France cannot go an entire year without a budget: It's a context in which revenues and expenditures are frozen. Political choices and priorities would give way to a purely accounting form of management.”
• According to de Montchalin, France cannot operate under special accounting, “because, in 2026, we need to allocate €8 billion more to paying interest on the debt. Without an approved budget, those €8 billion would have to be found elsewhere, in a top-down manner, without a debate in Parliament.”
• The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has left President Emmanuel Macron with no obvious route to restoring the stability required to pass a budget, with any successor likely to encounter the same resistance from both the left and right in parliament.
• Emmanuel Cau, head of European equities strategy at Barclays, “The only way to stop this crisis is to have a new election. It’s making Europe hard to invest in and creating an excuse for investors to tread carefully… The market has to think about the far right being in a position to capitalise.”
• Jordan Bardella, president of the far-right Rassemblement National, said this morning. “We have no other possibility but to return to the French people because, once again, the longer we wait, the more we play with the stability of the country...”