US STOCKS: Dow Set For Record Close, With Healthcare And Financials Gaining

• RES 4: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.4111/39 High Apr 10 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.4072 Bull channel top drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• RES 1: 1.4034 High Oct 9 and 10
• PRICE: 1.4029 @ 15:56 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 1.3916/3856 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3795 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. Last Thursday’s rally confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111 next, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is at 1.3856, the 50-day EMA.    

• RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6560 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:11 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 0.6473 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 0.6463 Low Aug 27 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD on Friday resulted in a break of 0.6521, the Sep 26 low, and 0.6484, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg. This undermines the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards key support at 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6560, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.     

• Treasury look to settle mixed, bonds weaker on very light volumes (TYZ5 670k) due to the Columbus Day holiday. The Dec'25 10Y contract currently trades at 113-05.5 (+1) - rebounding late with no obvious headline of Block-driven support.
• Normal Globex trade hours, stocks open - recovering approximately half of Friday's rout: the DJIA trades up 575.86 points (1.27%) at 46,057.31, S&P E-Minis up 98 points (1.49%) at 6,693, Nasdaq up 467.7 points (2.1%) at 22,674.98.
• No data, but Philly Fed Pres Anna Paulson (non-2025 FOMC voter, votes in 2026) said in a speech Monday that with rates "modestly restrictive now", she sees easing through year-end in line with the September SEP median - in other words, two more cuts by year-end. That's in line with MNI's assumption of her view.
• More Fed speakers tomorrow with focus on Chairman Powell's economic outlook keynote address at the NABE Annual Meeting at 1220ET.