STIR: Dovish Reaction To Retail Sales Miss Extends, 40bp Fed Cut For The Year
Feb-14 14:10
- The dovish reaction in US rates has continued following the surprisingly weak retail sales report, with revisions not coming close to offsetting the January miss.
- In fact, the miss for the control group (-0.8% M/M vs cons +0.3%) actually followed net downward revisions worth -0.17pps.
- Fed Funds implied rates are 3.5bp lower for the June meeting and 7bp lower for the Dec contract post-release.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 5.5bp May, 14.5bp Jun, 19.5bp Jul, 28.5bp Sep and 40bp Dec.
- The 40bp of cuts for the year has climbed from 30bp before yesterday’s PPI and a post-CPI recent low of 26bp.
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BOBL: Block trade
Jan-15 14:10
Bobl Block trade, suggest Buyer:
- OEH5 4k at 116.83.
EGB SYNDICATION: Ireland 30-year mandate
Jan-15 14:06
"Ireland has mandated Danske Bank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, Goodbody, HSBC and J.P. Morgan as joint lead managers for a forthcoming EUR3bn (no-grow) long 30-year RegS benchmark transaction, maturing 18 October 2055." From market source.
- We had noted that we thought there would be an Irish syndication this week and noted the 30-year as a possibility given that there is already a May-35 IGB outstanding (that was originally issued as a 15-year bond).
- The E3bln WNG transaction size is also in line with our expectations.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 30Y Ultra-Bond Buy
Jan-15 14:03
- +3,781 WNH5 117-06 (+129), buy through 117-01 post-time offer at 0856:50ET, DV01 $775,000. Contributing to the latest pull higher with the contract tapping 117-07
