STIR: Dovish BoE Reaction Fades, Just Over 65bp Of Further Cuts Priced For '25
Feb-06 13:36
The initial dovish move that followed the BoE-decision has faded, with the hawkish caveats, closer inspection of the Bank’s inflation projections and Bailey’s insistence on the gradual and uncertain nature of further reductions in bank rate factoring into the repricing.
- Much of the hawkish reversal happened ahead of Bailey’s press conference.
- BoE-dated OIS now prices 66bp of cuts through year-end, with the next 25bp cut fully discounted through May and a follow up 25bp cut priced through August.
- Year-end pricing is now ~4bp more dovish vs. levels seen ahead of the BoE decision, nearly 8bp off knee-jerk dovish extremes.
- The market still has a short-term bias to discounting cuts for meetings that are complimented by the MPR releases, which is fair given the elevated uncertainty that Bailey alluded to, along with the extra context that the MPR release can provide.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Cut-Adjusted SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.383 | -7.2 |
May-25 | 4.188 | -26.7 |
Jun-25 | 4.072 | -38.3 |
Aug-25 | 3.923 | -53.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.884 | -57.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.793 | -66.2 |
Dec-25 | 3.792 | -66.3 |
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: Chinese Policy Advisors And Traders On Yuan Outlook
Jan-07 13:33
MNI speaks to Chinese policy advisors and traders about the outlook for the yuan. -On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
CANADA NOV TRADE BALANCE -CAD323 MLN VS PRIOR -CAD544 MLN
Jan-07 13:30
- CANADA NOV TRADE BALANCE -CAD323 MLN VS PRIOR -CAD544 MLN
- CANADA NOV EXPORTS +2.2% MOM; IMPORTS +1.8%
- CANADA TRADE BALANCE WITH U.S. +CAD8.2B VS PRIOR +CAD6.6B
- CANADA Oct trade balance revised TO -CAD544M from -CAD924M
CANADA DATA: Canada's Nov Trade Deficit of CAD323 Mln Is 9th In A Row
Jan-07 13:30
- Canada Nov trade balance -CAD323M after -CAD544M in Oct.
- Exports +2.2% MOM; Imports +1.8% MOM
- Exports +1.6% YOY.
- Trade surplus with the U.S. widened to +CAD8.2B in Nov from +CAD6.6B in Oct. Excluding US, trade deficit expanded to -CAD8.5B from -CAD7.2B on lower exports of gold to HK and nickel to Norway.
- Oct trade deficit revised to -CAD544M from -CAD924M.
- StatsCan says figures should be treated with caution as some data were estimated following delays in new system implementation.
