POLAND: Domanski Sees Lower-Than-Planned Tax Revenues
- Tusk's Civic Platform party is to undergo a formal name change and will merge with Modern Platform and Polish Initiative to form a new party at the October 25th Congress, according to Rzeczpospolita. The formal leadership and new name of the party is not yet known, according to the report. The Greens declined to join the merger, but will remain part of the Civic Coalition and cooperate with the new party in the future.
- Speaking to state radio, finance minister Domanski has repeated there is no need to adjust the 2025 Budget, although lower CPI is stoking below-plan budget revenues. As such, he expects 2025 Budget spending to drop below planned levels.
- Speaking just after the close yesterday, Sobon of the NBP's management board (as such, isn't on the monetary policy committee) stated that public finances are "imbalanced" in an interview with Polsat. He stated that fiscal policy cannot be as expansive as it has been so far, and that the state of finances sends a "cautionary" sign. He was more upbeat on the prospects of the NBP controlling inflation, noting that inflation will be nearing the target over the medium-term and the prevailing information "does not look too bad". As such, he cannot rule out that rates will be cut or stay on hold.
- Retail sales data for September is due at 1000 local time (0900BST), expected at -2.2% M/M and +7.1% Y/Y. Consumer confidence data and money supply numbers also cross.
- The Parliamentary committee looking into allegations against NBP Governor Glapinski is set to be questioning MPC members including Tyrowicz, Kotecki and Litwiniuk later today. The session is closed to press.
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Historical bullets
BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $67.07 @ 07:10 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain above the Sep 5 low. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19
- PRICE: 173.98 @ 07:15 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: 173.01/171.83 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last Thursday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.01, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
- RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
- RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 119.73 @ Close Sep 19
- SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
- SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.
