US: DOJ Opens Criminal Investigation Into Fed's Lisa Cook - WSJ
The Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, "issuing subpoenas as part of an inquiry into whether she submitted fraudulent information on mortgage applications", per US officials cited by the Wall Street Journal.
- The Journal notes that: "The investigation comes on the heels of two criminal referrals from Bill Pulte, the Trump-appointed director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who has publicly alleged that Cook engaged in mortgage fraud. President Trump has cited those allegations in his bid to fire Cook..."
- An initial decision from US District Judge Jia Cobb on Cook’s request for a temporary restraining order on her firing is expected to come either today or tomorrow. If the judge grants Cook's request, she'll likely maintain her vote at the Federal Open Market Committee's Sept. 16-17 meeting.
- Betting markets are relatively sanguine about Trump successfully firing Cook. The implied probability of her ouster is currently roughly 30%, per Kalshi. That may rise with confirmation of the DOJ criminal investigation.
- Bloomberg notes, "If Cook succeeds in staying at the Fed, [CEA Chair Stephen] Miran’s seat would be the only sure opening Trump has for naming a new Fed chair that isn’t currently on the board."
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug06 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1500-10(E1.6bln), $1.1550-65(E1.4bln), $1.1600(E1.1bln
- USD/JPY: Y147.00($1.3bln), Y152.00($1.0bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3250(Gbp650mln)
MNI: US ISM JUL SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX 50.1
- MNI: US ISM JUL SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX 50.1
- US ISM JUL SERVICES PRICES 69.9
US DATA: Final PMIs For July Revised Up Further With Robust Services
The S&P Global final PMIs for July were stronger than first thought, with the services PMI further confirming a fresh high since December. The soon to be released ISM Services will provide a useful alternative indicator for services activity in July after undershooting by 2.1pts back in June.
- Services PMI: 55.7 (cons & prelim 55.2) in July after 52.9 in June
- Composite PMI: 55.1 (cons & prelim 54.6) in July after 52.9 in June.
The press release overview was similar to the flash release a few weeks ago. Some highlights more generally are stronger new orders along with tariffs having a clear impact on price pressures.
- “Where business activity rose, service providers often linked this to higher new orders, with anecdotal evidence also highlighting improvements in customer demand, the securing of new clients and work on new products.
- New orders expanded for the fifteenth consecutive month in July. As was the case with activity, the rate of expansion in new business picked up from June. The latest rise was solid and the fastest since January.
- New export orders have now decreased in each of the past four months, although the latest reduction was only marginal and the slowest in this sequence.”
- Price pressures: “Tariffs also had a clear impact on price pressures, according to anecdotal evidence. Companies widely linked the latest increase in input costs to the effects of tariffs, while also mentioning higher salaries. Input prices rose sharply, with the pace of inflation accelerating from June and coming in above the series average.
- Similarly, the pace of output price inflation quickened over the month and was steep. Panelists reported passing on tariff related rises in input costs to their customers. Here too, the increase was marked in the context of historical data.”
