UK DATA: DMP survey: Employment growth soft; doves more likely to vote for cuts

Employment growth has fallen back on both the realised and expected measures while the price growth measures have also ticked down a little (albeit remaining at high levels). There's no real evolution seen in the expected or realised wage growth numbers here.

So overall, the main focus from the MPC will be the employment growth figures. There's not enough here for any of the MPC members who voted for Bank Rate on hold in August to alter their views, but for Bailey and Ramsden who have both stated they are focused on the labour market, this data release probably increases the probability that they vote for a cut in November.

• Realised employment growth fell 0.6%Y/Y on the single month measure in August, with the same fall seen in July (the largest single month falls since July 2021). This brought the 3-month average to -0.5%Y/Y in the 3-months to August, after falling into negative territory for the first time since September 2021 last month.
• Expected employment growth on the single month measure also fell back and at -0.5%Y/Y is the softest single month reading since October 2020. However, with the June single month number being a decent 1.1%Y/Y, the 3-month average in the 3-months to August is still at 0.2%, and it had been up to 2 tenths lower in the first quarter.
• Mean realised price growth ticked down three tenths on the single month figure to 3.6%, but the 3-month average remained high and moved a tenth higher to 3.7%.
• However, mean expected price growth matched its lowest single month figure of the past 12-months at 3.5%Y/Y (the same as the single month figure 3-months ago). This left the 3-month average at 3.7%.
• Realised and expected wage growth both stayed relatively steady at 4.6% (from 4.7%) and 3.6% (same as prior) on the 3-month measures respectively.