UK DATA: DMP data has something for both the hawks and doves

The DMP survey showed an increase in own price growth (but probably largely expected) and fall in realised employment (but also well flagged by last month's single month data). Wage growth expectations continue to remain stable at 3.6%Y/Y for the year-ahead. We don't think this data will change the opinion of any MPC member. It's got something for both the more dovish and more hawkish members in here.

• Realised price growth increased to 4.1%Y/Y (4.06%Y/Y unrounded) in the single month measure in September (from 3.6%Y/Y in August). This was the first time above 4.0% since September 2024. The 3-month measure increased to 3.8%Y/Y from 3.7%Y/Y. This is probably still in line with the BOE's expectations, with the August MPR forecasts looking for CPI to peak at 3.99%Y/Y in September.
• Expected price growth remained unchanged on the 3-month measure at 3.7% (and has fluctuated between 3.5-3.9% since March on the single month measure, coming in at 3.7% in September).
• Realised employment growth remained at -0.5%Y/Y on the 3-month measure with the single month number of -0.4%Y/Y in September following two months of -0.6%.
• Mean expected employment growth fell on the 3-month measure to flat (0.0%Y/Y). This is the first flat reading since January, and the unrounded number is slightly negative for the first time since November 2020. However, the single month figure was +0.5%Y/Y after the -0.5%Y/Y number last month, so was already expected to be soft.
• Realised and expected wage growth both stayed relatively steady again in September August at 4.6% and 3.6% on the 3-month measures respectively - unchanged from August.