AMERICAS OIL: Diesel cracks driven by refinery outages and war damage – EIA

More AUD Call sellers on the CME (multiple clips):

• AUDUSD (5th Dec) 66.50c, sold at 0.11 in 2.9k.
• AUDUSD (5th dec) 67.00c, sold at 0.06 and now 0.05 in 2.5k total

• 10,000 TUZ5 103.87/104.37/104.5/104.87 broken put condors ref 104-05.5 to -05.62, 7.5 net

• AUDNZD had two separate bouts of strength early Tuesday, with both rallies stalling just ahead of key medium-term resistance at 1.1491. We have highlighted that a break of this level would place the cross at its highest point since 2013, with plenty of attention on the level/1.1500 ahead of NZ employment data, which highlights the APAC calendar on Wednesday.
• Filled jobs for the quarter signal a stabilisation, but employment is likely to have remained weak, with consensus forecasting it to rise only 0.1% q/q to be still down 0.2% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to rise 0.1pp to 5.3%, in line with the RBNZ's August projections. Soft labour demand is likely to weigh on private wage growth, which is forecast to rise around 0.4% q/q after 0.6%.
• JP Morgan have emphasised that NZD positioning, for systematics in particular, still screens very short Kiwi, and that a tactical long into the data makes a lot of sense to them. This view is highlighted by the fact JPM’s economics team think the NZ economy is primed for a recovery as business surveys begin to show signs of stabilisation.
• With the RBA out of the way, and given the cross has been closely following 2y rate spreads over the past couple of weeks, AUDNZD shorts would be their pick.
• The initial target for a correction lower is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1373, before more meaningful support just below the 1.13 mark.