LATAM: DI Swaps Curve Bull Flattens This Week, Despite High For Longer Messaging
Jul-02 18:07
- Brazilian DI swap rates have traded in a relatively tight range today, with yields in the belly edging up by 4-5bp, following the move in core rates. Despite further hawkish rhetoric from BCB Director Nilton David, reiterating the likelihood of an extended rate pause ahead, long-end yields remain more than 40bp lower over the last week.
- That move has come following recent softer macro data, particularly weak formal job creation figures on Monday, which suggest that the restrictive monetary policy stance is starting to weigh on the economy. While consensus is for the easing cycle to begin in 2026, several analysts see scope for the first rate cut to come before year-end.
- Elsewhere, Latam swap curves have generally edged lower today, with the Colombian IBR swaps curve slightly outperforming. Yields there have dipped 3-5bp, with long-end yields as much as 20bp lower over the past week, despite the recent hawkish BanRep rate decision. As noted, attention will be on tomorrow’s BanRep minutes for any clues on the conditions necessary for a resumption of cautious easing.
- Meanwhile, Chile camara swap rates have ticked down, leaving front-end yields ~7-8bp lower over the past week, as weak economic activity data this week have increased the prospect of a July rate cut. The BCCh will publish its latest minutes tomorrow.
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EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
Jun-02 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- RES 3: 0.8541 High May 2
- RES 2: 0.8493 High May 9
- RES 1: 0.8443 50-day EMA and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 0.8437 @ 16:34 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: 0.8356 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
EURGBP has recovered from its recent low. Despite these latest gains, a downtrend remains intact. Key short-term resistance is at 0.8443, the 50-day EMA - a level pierced on Monday. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 0.8541. For bears, support to watch lies at 0.8356, last Thursday’s low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.8316, the Mar 28 low and a key support.
FOREX: US Dollar Weakness Prevails, AUD & NZD Outperform
Jun-02 17:53
- The US dollar lost ground on Monday as markets assess the latest geopolitical concerns regarding the Russia/Ukraine conflict and tariff related developments between the US and China. The prevailing trend of greenback weakness has resumed, placing the USD Index at the lowest level for a month and narrowing the gap with the bear trigger at 97.92. The formation of a bearish engulfing daily candle on Thursday last week adds to the S/T downside focus.
- An extension of dollar weakness was seen following a below-expectation ISM manufacturing print, however, the subsequent stabilisation for equity markets allowed the DXY (-0.50%) to moderately recover from its worst levels.
- Despite the initial pessimistic tone for broader risk sentiment, AUD, NZD and NOK are the best performing currencies to start the week. AUDUSD received support in the low 0.6400s last week keeping bullish trend signals intact. A continuation higher would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement, and the November 25 high. Above here, the key medium-term focus is on the US election related highs at 0.6688.
- In similar vein, a 1% rise during today’s session has prompted NZDUSD to return to an important zone of resistance between 0.6025/40. A close at current levels would be the highest since the US election, signalling scope for a more protracted recovery towards 0.6168, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep ’24 – Apr ’25 selloff.
- USDJPY extended its pullback from last Thursday’s 146.28 high, and spot now trades back below 143.00. A continuation lower would expose 142.12, the May 27 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear leg and signal scope for a move towards a key medium-term pivot around the 140.00 mark.
- RBA minutes kick off Tuesday’s economic calendar, before Swiss and Eurozone inflation data. JOLTS job openings will headline the US session. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is due to speak at the Research Institute of Japan, in Tokyo.
FED: Goolsbee Hesitant To Make Transitory Argument For Tariff Inflation
Jun-02 17:38
Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) is hesitant to make a transitory argument for tariff-driven inflation, in contrast to Governor Waller, another FOMC participant at the dovish end of the spectrum, although it’s a view that’s seemingly shared by most of the committee after no apparent discussion at the May FOMC meeting. He sees surprisingly little tariff impact in data released so far but suggested that the April PCE data could be the last vestige of pre-tariff data.
- “If you only looked at official data you’d be behind the curve. So far we’ve had the last two months, excellent inflation reports but when we’re out talking to people they’re like just wait, just wait, we haven’t seen it yet but the tariffs are coming. So we’ve got to have a little bit of anticipation.”
- “I would say surprisingly little direct impact so far in the data that’s coming out. We don’t know if that will remain true for the next month or two.”
- “PCE inflation […] the backward looking average over the past year is 2.1% Y/Y so it’s pretty close. […] I think that’s the last vestige [of pre-tariff data]. I think these last months of inflation look pretty good to me. They’re why I thought underneath this thing was looking decent on dual mandate grounds.”
- “The more sophisticated thing that we’ve got to decide is if something raised prices, one time and stopped raising them […] econ 101 would say it’s a one-time impact. If you think that’s a transitory shock to inflation, there is a sense in which you should just ignore it when setting monetary policy. [But] We learned the last time around this thing hit the supply chain. […] I’m a little gun shy about making that argument again.”
