NORWAY: Details Of 2026 Budget Proposal Include Income and Electricity Tax Cuts

Oct-15 08:14

Full details of Norway’s 2026 budget proposal have been released. A reminder that the Government will spend 2.8% of total pension fund assets next year, which was in line with analyst and Norges Bank expectations. This is estimated to provide a broadly neutral fiscal impulse of 0.1pp towards mainland GDP next year.

Summary of some of the proposed polices (many of which were as expected).

  • The Government proposes to reduce income tax by more than NOK 4 billion by, among other things, increasing the personal allowance and reducing National Insurance on wages, benefits and business income.
  • “In total, the Government proposes to allocate NOK 11.5 billion to Norway’s Price electricity support scheme and the household electricity subsidy programme. Further, we propose to reduce electrical power tax by NOK 4 billion.
  • This was already known: “The Government proposes that families should pay a maximum fee of NOK 1,200 per month for a kindergarten spot
  • “Norway will in 2026 also provide military and civilian support to Ukraine through the Nansen programme. The Government proposes a total of NOK 85 billion in 2026 – the same as in 2025.
  • “The Government proposes to increase the defence budget in line with the long-term plan for the defence sector. This entails NOK 4.2 billion in increased funding. In total, it is estimated that defence expenditure will amount to 3.4 per cent of the gross national product (GDP) in 2026. 
  • “The Government proposes to increase carbon taxes by 14 per cent in 2026 in line with the plan to increase the general level to NOK 2,400 per tonne of CO2 in 2030 (measured in 2025 prices). “

Historical bullets

FOREX: Westpac Warn Of Sustained USD Decline

Sep-15 08:10

As noted elsewhere, this morning’s bid in European benchmark equity indices seems to be applying pressure to the broader USD.

  • Westpac have warned that the USD is at risk of a sustained decline, with particular focus on inflation risks limiting the Fed’s cutting cycle and prolonging a weaker economic growth profile in the U.S. (along with ongoing fiscal uncertainty).
  • As a result, Westpac expect “the DXY to slowly retreat to roughly halfway between its 10-year and 20-year averages, respectively 98.5 and 90.3, with a low of around 93.5 forecast for the second half of 2027”… “Underlying this trend decline are steady gains for EUR/USD, from 1.17 today to 1.20 end-2026 and 1.21 end-2027, and for GBP/USD, from 1.36 currently to 1.38 end-2027”.

EQUITIES: E-Minis Away From Highs After China Says Nvidia Violates Laws

Sep-15 08:08

E-minis tick lower as BBG headlines note that China’s preliminary probe found that Nvidia violated the country’s anti-monopoly laws, with the Chinese regulators set to conduct a further probe of Nvidia’s behaviour. The NASDAQ 100 contract is understandably under the most pressure, last trading little changed on the day, a little over 50 points off session highs.

EURIBOR: A big Jump in Volume in the March 2026

Sep-15 08:00
  • A Huge jump in the ERH6 volume this Morning, but this all due to the ESTR/ERH6 spread.
  • This has traded in circa 30.5k around 30 minutes ago, and a total of 98k spread have traded today.