UK DATA: Details for quarterly GDP
May-15 06:20
- The details of quarterly GDP are also quite hard to get a great read from. Aircraft imports were a big driver of GFCF.
- Looking at the breakdown of the Q/Q change in GDP: There was a positive contribution of 0.52ppt from GFCF (gross fixed capital formation), net trade contributed 0.36pt and household consumption contributed 0.12ppt.
- For GFCF which rose 2.9%Q/Q, the ONS notes that "The increase in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a large increase in transport (mainly because of increased aircraft imports), as well as increases in ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment, and other buildings and structures." Business investment (which is part of GFCF) rose 5.9%Q/Q.
- For exports: "The increase in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a 5.6% increase in goods exports and a 2.0% increase in services exports. The increase in goods exports was mainly caused by rises in exports of material manufactures, whereas growth in services exports was caused by rises in other business services and travel."
- There were negative contributions from other gross capital formation of 0.18ppt and government consumption of 0.11pt.
- The ONS notes: "The fall in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects lower expenditure on health and education."
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BTP TECHS: (M5) Resumes Its Uptrend
Apr-15 06:19
- RES 4: 120.65 1.382 proj of the MAr 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 2: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 1: 119.43 Intraday high
- PRICE: 119.41 @ 07:03 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 117.91 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger
BTP futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at 119.07, the Apr 4 high. The breach confirms the end of recent Apr 4 - 9 correction and cancels what appeared last week to be a developing bearish threat. Sights are on 119.29, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg (pierced). A clear break of this level would open 120.12, the Mar 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 117.91, the 20-day EMA.
UK DATA: Hard to get a great reading from the labour market data at first glance
Apr-15 06:05
- AWE Earnings a tenth weaker than expected for both total economy and private regular.
- The LFS employment change was a bit higher than expected (but unemployment rate was still in line with consensus).
- It looks as though there is a big downward surprise to the flash HMRC payrolls print.
- No huge movement and hard to really get a great reading from the data at first glance. Will look into the details now and follow up.
MNI: UK MAR CLAIMANT CHG +18700
Apr-15 06:00
- MNI: UK MAR CLAIMANT CHG +18700
- UK MAR CLAIMANT RATE +4.7%
- UK FEB AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS +5.6% YY
- UK FEB AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS EX-BONUS +5.9% YY
