COMMODITIES: Despite This Week's Gains, WTI Future Trend Remains Bearish

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Gold traded higher Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. First key support to watch is $3268.2, the Jul 30 low. 

• WTI Crude down $0.23 or -0.36% at $63.01
• Natural Gas up $0 or +0.11% at $2.72
• Gold spot down $9.55 or -0.28% at $3384.05
• Copper down $4.5 or -0.99% at $449
• Silver down $0.23 or -0.6% at $38.3795
• Platinum down $10.8 or -0.8% at $1344.75

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high is for now, considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 5374.47, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at  6311.73, the 50-day EMA.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 125.87 pts or +0.3% at 42520.27 and the TOPIX ended 2.25 pts lower or -0.07% at 3069.74.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 68.032 pts or -1.76% at 3800.35 and the HANG SENG ended 323.16 pts lower or -1.27% at 25201.76.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 84.41 pts or -0.35% at 24067.76, FTSE 100 higher by 12.21 pts or +0.13% at 9277.92, CAC 40 up 13.66 pts or +0.18% at 7723.47 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.93 pts or -0.07% at 5379.75.
• Dow Jones mini down 11 pts or -0.02% at 45478, S&P 500 mini down 2.5 pts or -0.04% at 6480, NASDAQ mini down 11.5 pts or -0.05% at 23581.

Dovish adjustments in EUR STIRs alongside the rally in wider core global FI markets, which comes with the recently flagged move lower in European equities.

• Liquid ECB-dated OIS pricing is little changed to ~2bp more dovish on the day, showing ~20bp of easing through June.
• Euribor futures are 1.0-3.5 higher.
• ERZ5 continues the recovery from multi-month lows registered on Monday
• ERZ6 0.5bp off the August high.
• Little of note on the Eurozone calendar today with this week’s focus set to fall on national level HICP data, due Friday.
• Early consensus based on the previews MNI has seen looks for the Eurozone-wide headline HICP reading (due September 2) to tick up a tenth to 2.1% Y/Y (on higher energy prices), while the core measure is expected to ease a tenth to 2.2% Y/Y (on softer services). Such a dynamic would be in line with the ECB's broader view of the inflation outlook and shouldn't have a material impact on market pricing.