POLAND: Dep FinMin Says PLN Appreciation Not Desirable But Gov't Won't Intervene
- Deputy Finance Minister Jurand Drop told PAP newswire that a further appreciation of the zloty would not be desirable, but the ministry is not planning to take active steps to contain it, while the recent move in the exchange rate is not a risk to the current growth forecasts at this point. These comments come after EUR/PLN attacked the 4.20 figure for the first time since 2018 and continues to hover just above there. Should the government choose to intervene, it could take action through a conversion of funds from EU aid in the market rather than through the NBP.
- Bloomberg and Radio Zet reported that Michal Solowow, who tops the list of the richest Poles, and Wirtualna Polska media group have emerged as potential suitors for Warner Bros Discovery Inc.'s TVN. Solowow has reportedly placed a preliminary bid, while Wirtualna Polska are still considering whether to join the race with the support of another player, which according to Radio Zet might have ties to billionnaire Rafal Brzoska. Bloomberg noted that the deal could be worth around PLN5bn. The government recently added TVN to a list of strategically important enterprises, grating itself the right to veto a potential acquisition, amid speculation that the group could be purchased by a Hungarian suitor with ties to Viktor Orban.
- Statistics Poland will release 2024 GDP data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET, with consensus looking for a 2.8% expansion.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.676 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $28.945 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Flag Formation
- RES 4: 1.4667 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4367 @ 07:52 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4277/4103 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
- SUP 4: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.42779, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Opening call, 92.25.
- Also regarding the timing for the SETT price window, this should happen at 12:13-12:15 (GMT) for Futures and Options.
