OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Oil Futures Remains Intact
Aug-20 10:55
On the commodity front, despite the latest pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $63.91, the 50-day EMA.
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Sep'25 10Y Put
Aug-20 10:54
5,000 TYU5 111 puts, 2 vs. 111-22.5/0.08% at 0632:11ET; Sep options expire Friday, open interest 143,902.
GILTS: The Gilt Roll has started
Aug-20 10:53
It's official, with the UK Data out of the way, the Gilt Roll has started, all the large Block trades going through are rolling Positions.
The range since Friday in the calendar spread has been a tight 3 bid at 5.
Today's range is 3/5, but most of the flow has been at 4 and 3.
While there's only 10k outright spread showing, most have been done on legs, and it is likely that at least 30% of the front Month Volume is now related to rolling positions into the December expiry.