US: Democrats More Enthusiastic Than Republicans About Voting In 2026 - Reuters
Reuters reports that, “Democrats appear more fired up than Republicans about voting in next year's congressional elections following the party's victories in recent state and local contests, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, which showed Republican President Donald Trump's approval steady at 40%.”
- Reuters notes, “Kitchen table issues appear to be the top concern for voters, with 45% saying the most important factor for deciding their vote will be a candidate's position on the cost of living. On that issue, 38% of registered voters said Democrats had a better plan, while 36% said Republicans were better.”
- The report notes, “The president won last year's election on promises to tackle the surge in inflation that damaged his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden. But Americans give Trump exceptionally low marks on how he has managed the costs weighing on U.S. households, with 62% of the country disapproving of his handling of the cost of living. The pace of inflation has edged higher since Trump took office in January, even as the job market has weakened.”
Figure 1: “How do you feel about voting in the 2026 congressional elections?”
Source: Reuters/Ipsos
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COMMODITIES: Gold Extend Gains, Crude Falls Amid US-China Tensions
- Gold registered another all-time high on Wednesday, buoyed by the escalation in US-China trade tensions and Powell's relative easing bias late on Tuesday.
- Spot rose to a peak at $4,218/oz earlier in the session, before paring gains, with price currently up by 1.3% at $4,198.
- This week’s extension in gold reinforces current bullish conditions, with the move up maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. After piercing the $4,200 handle today, sights turn to $4,239.7 next, a Fibonacci projection point.
- The trend is in overbought territory, however. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support lies at $3,918.7, the 20-day EMA.
- Meanwhile, silver has also rebounded by 2.9% to $52.9/oz today, keeping the precious metal just below this week’s record high ($53.546).
- Bloomberg writes that the silver market has been impacted by a lack of liquidity in London, prompting prices to soar above futures in New York.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish, and a break above yesterday’s record high would turn attention to $54.00 round number resistance next.
- Elsewhere, crude has extended losses amid demand concerns due to the trade tensions, as well as rising global supplies.
- WTI Nov 25 is down by 0.6% at $58.3/bbl.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact, with sights on $57.50 next, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at $62.31, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Retail Sales, PPI Suspended
Thursday's Retail Sales, PPI and Business Inventories suspended due to the Gov shutdown. On the other hand, Weekly Jobless Claims on a state level likely to be gradually parsed out.
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 10/16/2025 8:30 New York Fed Services Business Activity (-19.4, --)
- 10/16/2025 8:30 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (23.2, 10.0)
- 10/16 0900 Fed Gov Waller moderated discussion Council on Foreign Relations
- 10/16 0900 Fed Gov Barr on stablecoins
- 10/16 0900 Fed Gov Miran moderated discussion Int Trade Center
- 10/16 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (32, 33)
- 10/16 1000 Fed VC Bowman, Stress Testing Research Conf (text, no Q&A)
- 10/16 1615 Fed Gov Miran moderated discussion Semafor
- 10/16 1800 MN Fed Kashkari town hall South Dakota
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
USDJPY TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition
- RES 4: 154.80 High Feb 12
- RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 153.27 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 151.43 @ 15:45 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 150.90 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 149.92 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 148.63 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 146.92 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low
A bullish trend condition in USDJPY remains intact and the pullback from last week’s high appears corrective. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this overbought set-up to unwind. The next important support lies at 149.92, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, clearance of 153.27, the Oct 10 high, would resume the uptrend and open 154.39, a Fibonacci retracement point.
