US: Democrats Continue To Struggle With Black And Hispanic Voters
Feb-07 19:35
A new survey from Gallup has found that, “although Democrats continue to hold a formidable advantage over Republicans among non-Hispanic Black adults in the U.S., their current 47-point lead is the smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999.”
- Gallup continues: “Similarly, Democrats’ 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English. Meanwhile, White adults have maintained a 14- to 17-point preference for the Republican Party in most years since 2014. The parties were closer to parity among this large segment of the electorate between 1999 and 2009.”
- The survey is the latest to suggest that President Biden may no longer be able to count on the two key Democrat-voting bloc for support in November's presidential election.
- Bloomberg reported more favourably for Biden after last week's South Carolina Presidential primary: "The first contest of 2024 with Joe Biden’s name on the ballot gave Democrats some tentative signs of strength among the Black voters crucial to his reelection campaign."
Figure 1: Net Democratic Leaned Party ID, by Race/Ethnicity
Source: Gallup
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US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
Jan-08 19:19
- RRP usage recedes to $691.485B vs. $694.478B Friday -- compares to $664.899B on Thursday -- the lowest level since mid-June 2021.
- The number of counterparties falls back to 78, the lowest since April 2022.
NY Federal Reserve/MNI
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: NWM: QT Tapering Could Come At June Meeting
Jan-08 19:14
- “Post-FOMC minutes, our strategy team pulled forward their expectation for when the Fed will start tapering its QT program.”
- Following Dallas Fed’s Logan’s comments over the weekend, “Our strategy team now thinks an announcement could come at the June meeting, where officials could initiate a wind down of balance sheet rundown over a three month period.”
- “A sample timeline could be the following – where the upcoming January meeting minutes show that more participants start asking questions about how far reserves should go (‘the talking about talking about’ phase), at the March meeting the issue is explored in further detail, and during the May meeting we get an advance notice that tapering might commence soon and the June meeting officially kicks-off tapering.”
- NWM's rate view remains for a 50bp cut in May with 225bp of easing by end-2024.
US: May 21 - Special Election To Fill Former Speaker McCarthy's Seat
Jan-08 19:07
California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has scheduled a special election for May 21 to fill the vacant California 20th Congressional district seat of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. There will be a primary election to decide the candidates on March 19.
- Newsom's decision to delay the special election until May will maintain House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) majority at the razor thin two-vote margin for at least the next four months during which time Congress must negotiate two government funding deadlines, and potentially votes on US-Mexico border policy and President Biden's USD$110 bln national security supplemental.
- ABC notes, "some of people who have filed paperwork to run for the position include Assembly member Vince Fong, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux and David Giglio. All three are Republicans."
- The 20th is amongst the most GOP leaning districts in California and is expected to return a Republican lawmakers to the seat.
