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Rate lock hedging keeping Tsy futures off pre-open highs as issuance list expands, Amazon 6pt estimated at $12B today

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 11/17 $Benchmark Amazon 6pt jumbo: 3Y +60a, 5Y +70a, +7Y +75a, 10Y +85a, 30Y +105a, 40Y +115a
• 11/17 $Benchmark Enbridge 3Y +95a, +5Y +110a, 10Y +140a
• 11/17 $Benchmark Morgan Stanley 3NC2 fix/SOFR, 6NC5
• 11/17 $Benchmark Smurfit Westrock Fin 10Y +135a
• 11/17 $Benchmark Consolidated Edison 30Y +130a
• 11/17 $750M Molina Health 5.25NC2
• Investor calls: 
  • 11/17 $Benchmark Western Alliance
  • 11/17 $Benchmark Global Atlantic
  • 11/17 $Benchmark Baxter Int
  • 11/17 $Benchmark Cenovus
  • 11/17 $Benchmark Spire
  • 11/17 $Benchmark Vale

Healthy volume pick-up for futures on the USDJPY rally here: JPY futures traded ~9,400 contracts on the move into and through the Y155.00 handle, that's a cash equivalent of ~$750mln. This level not only marks the psychological handle, but a cluster of three intraday highs that have held as resistance over the past few sessions. 

• Note that the price actions comes just ahead of a key meeting between PM Takaichi and BoJ Governor Ueda tomorrow - the first in-person meeting since Takaichi entered office. Any perceived pressure being put on the BoJ will be closely scrutinised by markets.
• Technically, sights for USDJPY are on 155.53, a Fibonacci projection. A breach here would open up 155.89, the Feb 3 high.

Latest street views are mixed on the trajectory for JPY going forward, but understandably focus on the equity / risk mix in the short-term:

• Goldman Sachs see scope for JPY underperformance "to continue if risk can continue to digest recent wobbles as most of recent Yen performance has looked broadly in line with fundamentals". If September NFP "comes out in line with our economists' above-consensus forecast, FX performance around recent releases suggests that the Dollar should broadly outperform, mainly against the other safe havens, JPY and CHF."
• JP Morgan think "GBP & JPY are now the cheapest currencies in G10" according to their G10 FX short-term fair value calculations. However, they do "expect that JPY will remain under pressure in the absence of any sustained capitulation in risk markets."
• MUFG meanwhile note "A deeper pullback for US tech stocks could provide more support for the yen, and is one potential trigger for a short squeeze".

Gilts hold off lows registered over the past couple of sessions, although yields still print 5-13bp higher across the curve when compared to Thursday’s closing levels.

• Curve now sees a parallel ~3bp shift lower yields, early steepening unwound.
• Futures last +16 at 92.31 vs. highs of 92.43.
• Initial support of note located at 91.82, while bulls ultimately need to close Friday’s opening gap lower (~93.35) to start turning the technical tide back in their favour.
• As we noted previously, while long end swap spreads indicate increased fiscal risk premium being priced in after Chancellor Reeves’ apparent u-turn when it comes to income tax rate hikes, those spreads are still well off year-to-date lows.
• AXA Investment Managers halved exposure to gilts on Friday, according to a senior fund manager that spoke to RTRS.
• Elsewhere, OI data pointed to net short setting dominating in futures on Friday.
• SONIA futures flat to +3.0. 
• BoE-dated OIS little changed to 2bp more dovish on the day, showing 18.5bp of easing for December, 26.5bp through February and 35bp through March.
• CPI data headlines the UK calendar this week (Wednesday), ahead of next week’s Budget (which will also be delivered on a Wednesday).
• Expect our full CPI preview to be published in due course.