PLN: Defensive Flows Hurt Zloty

Oct-17 08:53

EUR/PLN has added 62 pips, cutting its weekly loss amid broader risk-off flows. The pair deals at 4.2552 and bulls look for a move toward Apr 16/Dec 25 highs of 4.3102/4.3114, while bears keep an eye on May 15 low of 4.2230.

  • The broad-based WIG Index has shed 1.8% and the blue-chip WIG20 sits 2.0% lower on the session. Stocks have come under pressure amid wider risk aversion, with banking stocks showing little reaction to the news that parliament passed an increase in corporate tax rate for the sector. The approval of the proposal was expected, but the legislation must still be signed by President Karol Nawrocki (his top aide said that he would 'analyse' the bill before making a decision), while banking lobbies are planning to mount legal challenge to the proposed changes.
  • POLGB yields have edged away from session lows but still sit 3.1-4.2bp below neutral levels. The 3-month WIBOR/1x4 FRA spread is 21.5bp despite a recent barrage of comments from NBP members, most of whom signalled a cautious approach to further monetary easing in the near term, while admittedly leaving the door ajar for more cuts in this cycle.
  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domański told CNBC that Poland cannot afford to cut back on defence spending but will continue work to reduce budget deficit in the coming years.

Historical bullets

BONDS: Firmer As Equities Weaken, Major Contract Initial Resistance Untouched

Sep-17 08:49

Core global FI markets firm on the back of the FT story suggesting that “China tells its tech companies to stop buying all of Nvidia’s AI chips”, with bull flattening seen on those curves.

  • TY, Bund & gilt futures break yesterday’s highs, but do not force tests of our technical analyst’s initial resistance levels.

EQUITIES: Lower On Suggestion China Pushes Tech Cos To Cease Nvidia Chip Buying

Sep-17 08:44

E-minis offered after as an FT sources report notes that "China’s internet regulator has told the country’s biggest technology companies to stop buying all of Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips and terminate their existing orders, as Beijing steps up efforts to boost its homegrown semiconductor industry and compete with the US".

  • S&P 500 e-minis through yesterday's low, breaking 6,660. Initial support comes in at the 20-day EMA (6,559.62).
  • Nvidia shares now indicated 1.1% lower pre-market.
  • Prior reporting had suggested that Chinese firms were not satisfied with the Nvidia chip offering available to them, while Chinese regulatory scrutiny of Nvidia has stepped up in recent days.

FED FUNDS FUTURES: FFF6/G6 Lifted

Sep-17 08:29

FFF6/G6 paper paid -12.0 on ~3.9K.