UK DATA: December Manuf PMI: Downward Revision, Continued Job Losses Noted

Jan-02 09:36

Downward revision to the UK December manufacturing PMI to 50.6 vs 51.2 flash, albeit still above November’s 50.2. 

While there were increases in both production and new orders in December, it’s not signalling a meaningful increase in demand. Meanwhile, employment levels are still falling, even if the rate of decline has eased.

Key notes from the release:

  • “The latest increase in manufacturing production mainly reflected a building-up of stocks of finished products and efforts to clear backlogs of work. UK manufacturers also benefited from several reduced headwinds towards the end of the year, as the negative impacts of uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget, tariffs and the JLR cyber-attack all moderated.”
  • “A slight gain in new work intakes also contributed to the expansion of production volumes. Incoming new business rose for the first time in 15 months.” … “The domestic market was the main growth spur for new orders, as intakes of new work from overseas contracted for the forty-seventh successive month in December”
  • “Although manufacturing employment decreased for the fourteenth month running in December, the rate of job loss was the weakest during that sequence of decline.”
  • “December saw a mild increase in price pressures, as input cost inflation accelerated and output charges rose after declining in November.”
  • “Business confidence about the year ahead outlook dipped from November's nine-month high in December”
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Historical bullets

UK DATA: Services PMI: MPC doves will be encouraged as firms don't pass on costs

Dec-03 09:35

There has been an upward revision to the services (and composite) UK PMIs, but the key thing for the MPC in our opinion will be that despite cost increases, services firms feel that they are constrained regarding their ability to pass on price increases so November prices charged were at their lowest increase in "just under five years." The doves will be encouraged by this, and it is another roadblock cleared ahead of the December MPC meeting. Tomorrow we will see DMP data. 

Highlights from the press release

  • "Around 29% of the survey panel recorded a rise in their average cost burdens, while only 2% signalled a reduction."
  • "Despite a sharp and accelerated pace of input price inflation, the latest survey indicated only a marginal rise in output charges across the service economy. Moreover, the rate of prices charged inflation eased markedly in November to its lowest for just under five years. Anecdotal evidence suggested that rising competition and weak sales pipelines had constrained service providers' ability to pass on higher business costs."

MNI: UK NOV FINAL SERV PMI 51.3 (50.5 FLASH, 52.3 OCT)

Dec-03 09:30
  • MNI: UK NOV FINAL SERV PMI 51.3 (50.5 FLASH, 52.3 OCT)
  • UK NOV FINAL COMP PMI 51.2 (50.5 FLASH, 52.2 OCT)

US TSY FUTURES: TU Sold

Dec-03 09:26

Recent trade in TUH6 sees a ~9K seller at 104-13.125. DV01 ~$363K.