SNB: Dec Meeting Summary Says Move Into Either Direction Was Not Appropriate

Gilts off early lows after yesterday’s low in futures holds, but a bid in European equities limits the recovery.

• A reminder that spillover from the hawkish repricing in the EUR short end drove much of the recent sell off.
• Gilt futures trade as low as 90.63 before recovering to ~90.70 last.
• Support clustered at 90.62/53, while resistance comes in at 91.16.
• A break of the support cluster would deepen the recent bearish move and negate a bullish technical theme.
• Yields 0.5-1.5bp higher vs. closing levels, curve a touch flatter.
• Gilt bulls still can’t force a sub-165bp close in the gilt/Bund spread, although the differential continues to hover around recently registered ’25 lows, last 166.5bp.
• GBP short end pricing little changed vs. pre-gilt open levels.
• The previously detailed BoE TSC hearing headlines the UK calendar today (14:15 London).
• On the supply front, the DMO will sell GBP750mln of the 4.25% Jun-32 gilt via a tender operation this morning.

FX Exchange Traded Roll sees the EUR Z5/H6 bought off the low in over 10k. Today's low print was its lowest since October and 80% of the Front Z5 is now related to rolling Positions into March 2026. 

Over 90k spread have already traded today in the EUR.

PACE:

• EUR: 24% (below pace).
• GBP: 36% (above pace).
• JPY: 44% (above pace).
• CHF: 35% (above pace).
• CAD: 17% (below pace).
• AUD: 40% (above pace).
• NZD: 24% (below pace).
• SEK: 35% (above pace).
• NOK: 21% (above pace).

• RES 4: $60.852 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing 
• RES 3: $60.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $59.563 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $59.334 - High Dec 5   
• PRICE: $58.335 @ 08:11 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: $54.398 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $50.833/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and price is trading just below its recent trend highs. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move above $55.00 signals scope for a climb towards $59.563 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the $60.00 psychological handle. Initial support lies at $54.398, the 20-day EMA.