SWEDEN: Dec ETI and Nov Retail Sales Strengthen Recovery Signals
This morning’s Swedish data provided further evidence of a cyclical recovery, alongside positive labour market signals. The Riksbank acknowledged stronger activity trends at yesterday’s monetary policy decision, but still believed “a policy rate at its current level helps to strengthen domestic demand and thus also economic activity”. That said, if domestic data continue to strengthen, and inflation doesn’t fall as much as expected, we would expect a more explicitly hawkish pivot at one of the quarterly decisions in H1 ’26.
- The Economic Tendency Indicator rose to 103.7 in December, above the three-analyst consensus of 102.5. This was the sixth consecutive increase.
- Consumer sentiment was broadly steady at 95.8 (vs 95.7 prior), a little below expectations. Sentiment increased in all major industry sectors.
- Retail sentiment is now at a 3-year high of 111.9 (vs 111.1 prior). It follows that November retail sales were extremely solid at 1.1% M/M (analyst forecasts were for 0.3-0.4% growth).
- The expected employment diffusion index rose 1 point to 7, a multi-year high. Yesterday, the Riksbank noted that the labour market has been weaker than expected, but remain confident of a turnaround in the coming months. Stronger expected employment continues to be led by construction, but services also rose 4 points in December.
- The expected prices diffusion index ticked up 1 point to 15, but remains below the H1 ’25 average of 18.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: Group Ldrs Look To Restrict Secret Votes & Hobble Far-Right
The Conference of Presidents (the heads of the political groups in the European Parliament) holds a meeting at 16:00CET (10:00ET, 15:00GMT) intended to discuss how to cut down on the use of secret ballots in plenary session votes. Making secret ballots more difficult to hold could limit the prospects of the broadly centrist coalition of groups that backed Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2024 being usurped in more votes by the 'Venezuela' coalition of centre-right, right and far-right groups.
- Politico notes, "The far right has increasingly asked for them, enabling centrist MEPs to discreetly break with deals negotiated by their own leadership — a tactic that helped blow up the agreement to cut green reporting rules for companies, which ultimately was passed thanks to a right-wing majority."
- At present, in order to call for a secret ballot, MEPs or groups reaching the 'high threshold' of one-fifth of MEPs (144) must do so before the vote takes place. The two groups on the far-right, the Patriots for Europe (PfE, 85 seats) and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN, 27), fall short of this threshold alone. However, if the conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR, 79) side with the PfE and ESN, then the 'high threshold' is met.
- In order to change a rule of procedure, the constitutional affairs committee must evaluate a proposal before putting it before the plenary session, where a majority vote is required.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put Ladder seller
RXZ5 129.00/128.50/128.00p ladder, sold at 22 in 3k.
SOFR: SFRZ7-U8 Strip Blocked
Latest block trade lodged at 08:43:45 London/03:43:45 NY:
- SFRZ7-U8 strip 1K blocked, CME points to a buyer, although looks more seller initiated when looking at prevailing bids and offers at the time.
