STIR: Dec BoE Pricing Stable, Over 80% Odds Of Cut Showing
Extension of the recovery from yesterday’s lows in core global FI markets provides modest dovish impulses in GBP STIRs.
- BoE-dated OIS still prices ~22bp of easing for this month’s meeting, with a cumulative 48.5bp of easing discounted through April and 53.5bp showing through June.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.0, with implied terminal rate pricing steady, hovering around 3.35%. SFIZ6 is 5bp off November’s cycle high.
- Final services and composite PMI data is due this morning, tangible market reaction would only be seen on a meaningful departure from the preliminary 50.5 reading in the services PMI.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Dec-25 | 3.749 | -22.1 |
Feb-26 | 3.684 | -28.6 |
Mar-26 | 3.596 | -37.4 |
Apr-26 | 3.485 | -48.5 |
Jun-26 | 3.436 | -53.4 |
Jul-26 | 3.371 | -60.0 |
Sep-26 | 3.352 | -61.8 |
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up
- RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6953.75 High Oct 30
- PRICE: 6878.50 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: 6812.25/6795.74 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6690.58 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The fresh cycle high last week confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6974.04 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6795.74, the 20-day EMA. Key pivot support lies at 6690.58, the 50-day EMA.
MNI: SWISS OCT CPI -0.3% M/M, +0.1% Y/Y
- MNI: SWISS OCT CPI -0.3% M/M, +0.1% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT CORE CPI +0.5% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT SERVICES CPI +1.1% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT GOODS CPI -1.6% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT DOMESTIC GOODS CPI +0.5% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT IMPORTED GOODS CPI -1.3% Y/Y
WTI TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $61.29 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: $59.64/55.96 - Low Oct 23 & 30 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
