STIR: Dec BoE Cut Still More Than 80% Priced Ahead Of Budget
Modest hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs as equities extend higher and core global FI markets ease a little.
- BoE-dated OIS still prices over 80% odds of December rate cut. A 25bp move is fully discounted through January, with a follow up rate cut fully priced through June
- SONIA futures little changed to -1.5. Implied terminal rate pricing little changed around ~3.35%.
- Chancellor Reeves will start to the present the Budget around 12:30 London.
- See our recent bullet (UK FISCAL: Budget Timings) for a more detailed drilldown of timings surrounding the event.
- Elsewhere, our full Budget preview can be found here.
- While our latest Gilt Week Ahead outlines the key metrics that we are looking at ahead of the event.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Dec-25 | 3.762 | -20.7 |
Feb-26 | 3.695 | -27.4 |
Mar-26 | 3.606 | -36.3 |
Apr-26 | 3.502 | -46.7 |
Jun-26 | 3.454 | -51.5 |
Jul-26 | 3.394 | -57.5 |
Sep-26 | 3.378 | -59.1 |
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NORWAY: NFC Credit Growth Eases; Downside Econ Risks May Support Faster Cuts
- Although the Norwegian economy has been resilient through this year, fading offshore tailwinds and a more neutral fiscal policy stance may present downside risks in the years ahead. This may open the door to a faster pace of easing than currently signalled by Norges Bank. That said, no changes to the policy rate nor guidance are expected at next Thursday’s November decision.
- After peaking at 2.7% Y/Y in April/May, Norwegian non-financial corporate lending growth was fallen back to 1.7% Y/Y.
- Household credit growth instead accelerated to 4.4% Y/Y (vs 4.2% prior).
- This week’s Norwegian calendar includes September retail sales (Wednesday) and October unemployment claims data (Friday).
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Starts The Week On A Bullish Note
- RES 4: 6953.25 2.000 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 6912.25 3.000 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 6890.00 1.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- PRICE: 6887.25 @ 07:23 GMT Oct 27
- SUP 1: 6812.25/6731.66 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6645.22 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading higher today, as it begins the week on a bullish note. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6850.87, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6721.62, the 20-day EMA. The 50–day EMA is at 6637.80.
SWEDEN: Lending Growth Cotninues To Expand Steadily
Swedish non-financial corporation lending growth eased three tenths to 2.5% Y/Y in September, but remains comfortably above the H1 average growth rate of 0.95%. The continued passthrough of easier monetary policy should continue to support business lending growth in the coming months. The 2010-2019 average monthly growth rate was 3.5% Y/Y. Household lending (the majority of which is mortgage lending) ticked up another tenth to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 1.8% at the start of this year).
- Around 70% of Swedish household mortgages are floating rate, so interest rate changes feed through to the real economy relatively quickly. In September, the average rate paid on floating rate mortgages fell to 2.80% (vs 2.86% prior), the lowest since August 2022.
- The Riksbank is expected to remain on hold at 1.75% for some time to come.
- This week's calendar includes plenty of growth data. The Riksbank (and the Government) will want to start seeing evidence of a recovery taking hold.
