STIR: Danske Note Hiking Risks Have Not Fully Receded
In line with the point made in the prior bullet (the ECB may deliver hikes in '26 to maintain credib...
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STIR: 5bp Of BoE Cuts Priced
Hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs with core global FI markets on the defensive after some hawkish comments from the ECB Governing Council and a recovery from Tuesday lows in crude oil.
- BoE-dated OIS 2.5-12.5bp less dovish through ’26, showing ~5bp of easing through July. A reminder that as much as ~22bp of tightening was priced through year-end during Monday’s hawkish repricing.
- SONIA futures flat to -11.5, SFIZ6 is still the best part of 30 ticks above Monday’s low. While both SFIZ6/Z7 & SFIZ6/Z8 trade away from this week’s lows.
- BoE’s Breeden will speak in front of the House of Lords Financial Services Regulation Committee this morning, but will cover Stablecoinns, so don’t expect much on monetary policy.
- That will leave geopolitical matters and related oil volatility at the fore.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Mar-26 | 3.726 | -0.4 |
Apr-26 | 3.696 | -3.4 |
Jun-26 | 3.687 | -4.3 |
Jul-26 | 3.682 | -4.8 |
Sep-26 | 3.695 | -3.4 |
Nov-26 | 3.704 | -2.6 |
Dec-26 | 3.706 | -2.4 |
EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
- RES 2: 185.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 9 - 12 bear leg
- RES 1: 184.77 High Feb 25 and a short-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 183.88 @ 07:34 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 182.90/03 Bull channel from Feb 28 ‘25 low / Low Mar 03
- SUP 2: 180.81 Low Feb 12
- SUP 3: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25
- SUP 4: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle
EURJPY is recovering from its most recent lows. Key support at 182.90, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low, remains intact. A clear channel breakout is required to signal a stronger reversal and would open another key support at 181.81, the Feb 12 low. For bulls, initial resistance to monitor is unchanged at 184.77, the Feb 25 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight the resumption of a fresh bull wave inside the channel.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Bounce Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 6983.75 High Feb 25
- RES 3: 6894.74 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 6872.49 20-day EMAl
- RES 1: 6833.50 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6803.50 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 6714.75 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 ‘25 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: 6534.52 1.382 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 3 - 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 6503.25 1.500 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 3 - 5 price swing
A sharp bounce in S&P E-Minis on Monday appears corrective - for now - and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The recent breach of 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, confirms a range breakout and highlights a stronger short-term bear threat. A resumption of weakness would open 6583.00, the Nov 21 ‘25 low and a key medium-term support. Initial firm resistance is 6890.53, the 50-day EMA.
