EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Danone; equities rally +15% YTD
Apr-04 07:46
Not sure why credit was sending it high-beta wider yesterday, noting not all F&B peers are staple (see General Mills or Kraft Heinz earnings of recent).
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MNI: FRANCE JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.6% M/M, -1.6% Y/Y
Mar-05 07:45
- MNI: FRANCE JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.6% M/M, -1.6% Y/Y
- FRANCE JAN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT -0.7% M/M, -2.4% Y/Y
STIR: Euribor Futures Dragged Lower By Bunds On German Fiscal Reform
Mar-05 07:43
Euribor futures have been dragged lower by Bunds after incoming German Chancellor Merz announced a proposal to reform the debt brake and set up a E500bln infrastructure fund last night.
- Futures are -3.0 to -20.0 ticks through the blues, bear steepening alongside EGB curves.
- ECB-dated OIS price 76bps of easing through year-end, 8ps more hawkish than yesterday’s close.
- A 25bp cut is unanimously expected and essentially fully priced for tomorrow’s decision, while the implied probability of a subsequent 25bp cut in April is around 55%.
- MNI’s ECB preview is here.
- Today’s regional calendar includes final February services PMI data, alongside Eurozone January PPI.
- Broader macro focus remains on any further German fiscal details, fresh US tariff headline flow (after US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested Canada/Mexico tariffs could be rolled back to some extent yesterday evening) and today’s US data.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.420 | -24.4 |
| Apr-25 | 2.280 | -38.5 |
| Jun-25 | 2.112 | -55.2 |
| Jul-25 | 2.054 | -61.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.970 | -69.4 |
| Oct-25 | 1.945 | -71.9 |
| Dec-25 | 1.907 | -75.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.895 | -76.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USD: EURUSD extends gains as Yields spike higher
Mar-05 07:43
- The Dollar was mixed Overnight, but has moved into the Red, with the EUR leading as European Yields spike higher, a continuation from Yesterday's Tariffs announcement, more threats from Trump and in early trade ahead of the German 30yr Syndication and the awaited German Debt brake plan.
- German Futures are plummeting, Buxl is already down over 600 ticks.
- Next immediate resistance in the EURUSD comes at 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg.
