EM LATAM CREDIT: Daily Report of Argentina Central Bank Reserves

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4120 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/3972 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3849 @ 16:26 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, the outlook remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 highlights a resumption of the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3972, the 20-day EMA.

• Treasuries look to finish near near midday highs Tuesday, curves mildly steeper amid decent short end support all day (conditional steepeners via options, Block buying SOFR White packs) as Trump officials reported progress in tariff negotiations without much hard facts.
• Pres Trump to announce "more tariff relief" at a rally in Michigan this afternoon, "domestic automakers will be happy" WH Deputy Chief of Staff Miller said.
• Cautious risk-on support in rates buoyed projected rate cut pricing in the later half of the year (Sep at -61.0bp) while stocks finished near moderate session highs (SPX eminis +35.0 at 5588.0).
• The JOLTS report saw a second month with lower-than-expected job openings, and this time by a greater extent in March. However, layoffs fell to their lowest since June and quit rates surprisingly inched higher.
• US consumer confidence dropped for a 5th consecutive month in April following the November peak per the Conference Board's survey, with the Composite to 86.0 (88.0 expected, 93.9 prior upwardly revised from 92.9) - the lowest since May 2020.
• Focus turns to Wednesday's ADP private jobs data, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE and Home Sales.

• RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6450 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6388 @ 16:25 BST Apr 29 
• SUP 1: 0.6344/6307 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11  
• SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6307, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.