UKRAINE: Daily Mail Reports Trump Peace Plan 'Leaked'
The Daily Mail reports that US President Donald Trump will look to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept an Easter ceasefire with Russia according to a 'leaked' plan. Daily Mail: "The unconfirmed plans[...] will include a ceasefire by April 20 that would freeze Russia's steady advance, a ban on Ukraine from joining NATO, and a demand for Kyiv to accept Russian sovereignty on annexed land."
- The leaked plan supposedly includes stipulations that Ukrainian troops leave Russia's Kursk oblast, that European (not US) troops would police a DMZ, and that the EU will be asked to contribute significantly to reconstruction cost for Ukraine.
- To start the process Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin would hold a phone call early this month, followed by a meeting in late Feb/early March. A ceasefire would be declared by 20 April. Agreement on how to end the war would be published by 9 May.
- In exchange for Ukrainian concessions, the report claims the Trump plan has the US continuing support for Ukraine's armed forces and a pathway to EU membership by 2030.
- Ukraine has denied this plan's premise, with presidential spox Andriy Yermak saying it does not 'exist in reality'.
The report comes amid a shift in organisational support for Ukraine. RFE/RL reported on 5 Feb that for the first time, the UK rather than the US will chair the 12 Feb meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will be in attendance.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 10Y Buy
- +5,000 TYH5 108-06 (-11), buy through 108-05.5 post time offer at 1015:02ET, DV01 $320,000. The 10Y contract trades 108-07.5 last.
US TSYS: US Yields jump post JOLTS and ISM big beat
- The Next big level in the 10yr Yield will be at 4.7351%, this was the April high, and the highest print since November 2023.
- Today, aside from the 108.00 figure, this Yield level would be circa 107.26.
- The US 20yr Yield, has followed the 30yr and now also trades at it best level since 14/11/23.
GILTS: Fres Sell Off, Long Positioning Further Exposed
The hawkish data reaction in U.S. markets triggers fresh selling in gilts.
- Futures as low as 91.46, Fibonacci support at 91.58 breached. Contract 91.55 last, -40 on the day.
- 10-Year yields register fresh session highs of 4.672%, hitting the highest level seen since ’23.
- 4.70% equivalent in futures located at 91.13 today, perhaps the next meaningful target for gilt bears.
- 30s to fresh multi-decade highs of 5.232%, eying next yield resistance at 5.250/255%.
- 10-Year gilt/Bunds now ~3.3bp wider on the day at 319.5bp.
- Gilt bears will look to force a move back above 220bp in that spread before setting their sights towards cycle highs.
- Note that our latest positioning indicator, released earlier today, points to continued long positioning in futures, albeit less extreme than the very long positioning witnessed in late July/early August.
- This positioning could further intensify sell offs, if longs are forced to exit.
