SOUTH AFRICA: DA Surpasses ANC In Fresh Opinion Poll, SARB To Release MPR
Apr-15 06:41
- The Institute of Race Relations (IRR's) latest opinion poll showed that the Democratic Alliance (DA) may have surpassed the African National Congress (ANC) for the first time on record. The DA's support rate rose to 30.3%, which allowed the party to edge ahead of the ANC (29.7%), with the IRR noting that President Ramaphosa's party's 'proposal to raise VAT has contributed significantly to this shift.' Meanwhile, the DA's support among black voters has more than tripled to 18%, indicating a growing salience of socioeconomic social cleavages over traditional identity-based grievances. The Institute will hold an open webinar to discuss the poll in more detail later today.
- Following a marathon of budget talks with other parties, the ANC's National Working Committee (NWC) held a regular meeting yesterday, taking stock of the situation, and is expected to report back to the National Executive Committee (NEC), asking it to decide whether to abandon the proposed VAT hike and chart the path forward on the potential reconfiguration of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
- President Cyril Ramaphosa tapped ex-Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas to become his special envoy to the US amid efforts to repair bilateral relations. His appointment was initially welcomed as a sign of commitment to restoring mutual trust, but journalists quickly dug up Jonas' lecture from years ago, in which he called US President Donald Trump a 'racist racist, homophobic rightwinger,' which might backfire at some point. Separately, BusinessDay reported that Mcebisi's appointment does not mean that the search for a new South African ambassador to the US has been put on hold.
- The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will publish its biannual Monetary Policy Review (MPR) at 15:30BST/16:30SAST. The document covers domestic and international developments affecting monetary policy.
- The National Treasury will sell ZAR1.25bn of 8.25% 2032 bonds, ZAR1.25bn of 10.00% 2033 bonds and ZAR1.25bn of 8.50% 2037 bonds today.
- South Africa's February mining production data will be published at 10:30BST/11:30SAST.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
