EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CZGB: Weak PPI reading for March

• RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger         
• RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart  
• RES 1: 92.28/63 20-day EMA / High Mar 7 and a key resistance                      
• PRICE: 91.90 @ Close Mar 14
• SUP 1: 91.07/90.71 Low Mar 13 / 6                                     
• SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing  
• SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing 

The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish. Recent gains appear corrective and the move lower last week, signals the end of the corrective cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 92.63, Mar 5 high.

• RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28      
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5   
• RES 1: 116.98/117.79 High Mar 7 / 20-day EMA        
• PRICE: 116.17 @ Close Mar 14 
• SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14 
• SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing   

BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low last week. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.56, the Mar 5 high.

• A fairly limited range for Bund Overnight , and still trading within last Week's range and Tech levels, as the focus turns to the FOMC.
• Main support is still seen at the 2.95% Yield, which has held so far throughout early March.
• Resistance moves down to 127.65, but better is seen at 128.33.
• Today, sees the Italian final CPI, but more focus will be on the US Retail Sales this afternoon.
• Overall it is a much lighter Week for US Data, the attention this Week will be on the Central Banks Rate decisions, and rolling Equity positions ahead of Triple Witching on Friday.